{"hits":3,"misses":4,"open":9,"calls":[{"call_id":"C0001","status":"filed","drafted_at":"2026-07-11T17:34:22.437390+00:00","player_id":695578,"player_name":"James Wood","archetype":"breakout","thesis":"Top-5 MLB contact quality (ev95 112.1) with results lagging process; second-half surge","metric":"fg_war_from","threshold":2,"baseline":null,"window_end":"2026-09-27","filed_at":"2026-07-11T18:08:30.958261+00:00","war_at_filing":4.183349239830225,"note":"season-to-date FG WAR captured 2026-07-11, day of filing","corrections":[{"note":"annotation, not an edit: the 2026-07-11 19:19 UTC append captured war_at_filing (4.18) on the day of filing so the +2.0 WAR window has a frozen baseline. This line exists because a reader rightly asked what that corrected_at was.","at":"2026-07-13T07:11:59.007821+00:00"}],"slug":"james-wood-695578","card_image":"/cards/C0001.png","plain_terms":"We're saying he finishes like a star: at least +2 WAR from filing through September 27 — a pace only the game's best sustain. He does it, or the ledger says MISS.","progress":{"days_left":31,"bip_in_window":47,"state":"ungraded","line":"No live grade. This resolves on FanGraphs WAR, refetched when the window closes. We do not carry a live FanGraphs feed — and MLB's own WAR is a different calculation, so we will not substitute it and pretend."}},{"call_id":"C0002","status":"filed","drafted_at":"2026-07-11T17:34:22.443661+00:00","player_id":666397,"player_name":"Edouard Julien","archetype":"breakout","thesis":"Contact results running .092 below park-adjusted expectation on stable quality; results catch up","metric":"aval_change","threshold":0.03,"baseline":0.3385,"window_end":"2026-09-27","filed_at":"2026-07-11T18:08:31.035753+00:00","baseline_through":"2026-07-10","note":"baseline_through recovered 2026-07-14: the as-of the baseline was actually frozen against. Found by searching for the game date whose season-to-date mean value on contact REPRODUCES the filed baseline exactly (err < 5e-5, i.e. below the 4-decimal rounding of the filed number). Additive annotation — no term of any call is changed. It is published so a reader can reproduce our baseline themselves.","annotated_at":"2026-07-14T15:51:59.086321+00:00","slug":"edouard-julien-666397","card_image":"/cards/C0002.png","plain_terms":"We're saying the luck turns: his results on contact climb at least +0.03 over the filing baseline by September 27. Call it a 30-point jump — points, the same way an average moves. The bat has already earned it — the stat line pays up, or we take the miss.","progress":{"days_left":31,"bip_in_window":20,"state":"early","current":0.3125,"baseline":0.3385,"target":0.3685,"moved":-0.026,"expected":0.0087,"moved_toward":-0.026,"expected_toward":0.0087,"target_toward":0.03,"line":"20 balls in play so far — we wait for 25 before we put a grade on it. A scoreboard built on six swings is a slot machine."}},{"call_id":"C0003","status":"filed","drafted_at":"2026-07-11T17:34:22.469215+00:00","player_id":676391,"player_name":"Ernie Clement","archetype":"fade","thesis":"Results on contact outrunning 100.1 ev95 quality by +.056; regression on contact value","metric":"aval_change","threshold":-0.03,"baseline":0.3465,"window_end":"2026-09-27","filed_at":"2026-07-11T18:08:31.114894+00:00","baseline_through":"2026-07-10","note":"baseline_through recovered 2026-07-14: the as-of the baseline was actually frozen against. Found by searching for the game date whose season-to-date mean value on contact REPRODUCES the filed baseline exactly (err < 5e-5, i.e. below the 4-decimal rounding of the filed number). Additive annotation — no term of any call is changed. It is published so a reader can reproduce our baseline themselves.","annotated_at":"2026-07-14T15:51:59.088314+00:00","slug":"ernie-clement-676391","card_image":"/cards/C0003.png","plain_terms":"We're saying the results give it back: value on contact falls at least 0.030 from the filing baseline by September 27 — 30 points, handed back. The bat never supported the stat line; gravity does the rest — or we take the miss.","progress":{"days_left":31,"bip_in_window":133,"state":"behind","current":0.327,"baseline":0.3465,"target":0.3165,"moved":-0.0195,"expected":-0.0211,"moved_toward":0.0195,"expected_toward":0.0211,"target_toward":0.03,"line":"Off the pace. The direction is right and the speed is not."}},{"call_id":"C0004","status":"filed","drafted_at":"2026-07-11T17:34:22.473677+00:00","player_id":694671,"player_name":"Wyatt Langford","archetype":"fade","thesis":"First-half results outran contact quality (+.065 park-adj gap); contact value regresses","metric":"aval_change","threshold":-0.025,"baseline":0.4406,"window_end":"2026-09-27","filed_at":"2026-07-11T18:08:31.192219+00:00","baseline_through":"2026-07-10","note":"baseline_through recovered 2026-07-14: the as-of the baseline was actually frozen against. Found by searching for the game date whose season-to-date mean value on contact REPRODUCES the filed baseline exactly (err < 5e-5, i.e. below the 4-decimal rounding of the filed number). Additive annotation — no term of any call is changed. It is published so a reader can reproduce our baseline themselves.","annotated_at":"2026-07-14T15:51:59.089874+00:00","slug":"wyatt-langford-694671","card_image":"/cards/C0004.png","plain_terms":"We're saying the results give it back: value on contact falls at least 0.025 from the filing baseline by September 27 — 25 points, handed back. The bat never supported the stat line; gravity does the rest — or we take the miss.","progress":{"days_left":31,"bip_in_window":113,"state":"target_met","current":0.4075,"baseline":0.4406,"target":0.4156,"moved":-0.0331,"expected":-0.025,"moved_toward":0.0331,"expected_toward":0.025,"target_toward":0.025,"line":"Done it early. The bet was -0.025; he has moved -0.0331. The clock still has to run out."}},{"call_id":"C0005","status":"resolved","drafted_at":"2026-07-11T17:34:22.477743+00:00","player_id":695491,"player_name":"Joshua Baez","archetype":"pre_consensus","thesis":"AAA ev95 110.7 at 23 grades MLB-power-caliber; debuts and sticks within 14 months","metric":"mlb_debut_by","threshold":null,"baseline":null,"window_end":"2027-09-30","filed_at":"2026-07-11T18:08:31.270910+00:00","resolved_at":"2026-08-16T11:42:31.963864+00:00","resolution_value":1,"hit":true,"note":"debuted 2026-08-15","slug":"joshua-baez-695491","card_image":"/cards/C0005.png","plain_terms":"We're saying he's a big-leaguer by September 30, 2027. Simple, binary, and on the clock.","receipt_image":"/receipts/C0005.png"},{"call_id":"C0006","status":"resolved","drafted_at":"2026-07-13T06:18:44.803770+00:00","player_id":624641,"player_name":"Edmundo Sosa","archetype":"breakout","thesis":"Sprint call. Board No. 1 by overlay: 107.6 EV95 with results 0.106 under the physics. The gap starts closing now — thirty days on the clock.","metric":"aval_change","threshold":0.016,"baseline":0.3224,"window_end":"2026-08-12","filed_at":"2026-07-13T06:18:59.381338+00:00","baseline_through":"2026-07-11","note":"auto-resolved at window end","annotated_at":"2026-07-14T15:51:59.091448+00:00","corrections":[{"note":"Baseline frozen against an incomplete lake. This call was filed at 06:18 UTC on 2026-07-13, but its baseline (0.3224) was computed from a derived table that did not yet hold the games of 2026-07-12 — two of his balls in play were missing from it. With them, the baseline would have been 0.3168.\n\nWhy it matters: the baseline is the number a call is judged FROM. A baseline 0.0056 too high means he must now climb 0.0216 from where he actually stood, not the 0.0160 we set. That is 35% of the threshold, and it makes this call HARDER for us.\n\nThe call stands and resolves exactly as filed. No voids. That rule is only worth something because it binds us when the error runs the other way too — the same fault made C0007's fade 38% EASIER. We do not get to keep the one that helps and void the one that hurts.\n\nCause: the raw games were cached but the derived tables lagged them by a day, and nothing checked. Fixed since: lake.guard() now refuses to price a call from a lake standing behind its own published boards, and every call records baseline_through — the last day of games its baseline actually saw — so this is visible on the ledger rather than buried in it.","at":"2026-07-14T16:09:11.559350+00:00","field":"baseline"}],"resolved_at":"2026-08-13T11:40:58.081148+00:00","resolution_value":-0.0124,"hit":false,"slug":"edmundo-sosa-624641","card_image":"/cards/C0006.png","plain_terms":"We're saying the luck turns: his results on contact climb at least +0.016 over the filing baseline by August 12. Call it a 16-point jump — points, the same way an average moves. The bat has already earned it — the stat line pays up, or we take the miss.","receipt_image":"/receipts/C0006.png"},{"call_id":"C0007","status":"resolved","drafted_at":"2026-07-13T06:18:44.879990+00:00","player_id":666160,"player_name":"Mickey Moniak","archetype":"fade","thesis":"Sprint call. Results running a tenth of a run per ball in play over the contact quality. Gravity works, and it works on a schedule.","metric":"aval_change","threshold":-0.017,"baseline":0.4944,"window_end":"2026-08-17","filed_at":"2026-07-13T06:18:59.458845+00:00","corrections":[{"note":"Unit error in the sentence, not in the call. Results on contact here are valued on the wOBA linear weights — a single is 0.9, a double 1.25, a triple 1.6, a home run 2.0, an out 0 — and not in runs, whose values for those same four events are roughly .47, .78, 1.09 and 1.40. A different scale, and a different zero. So the gap this call was priced on is a tenth of value-on-contact; it is not 'a tenth of a run'. The terms are untouched and the call resolves exactly as filed — the baseline (0.4944) and the threshold (-0.017) were always in value-on-contact, which is what aval_change measures, and nothing about how this call will be judged has changed. Only the sentence named the wrong unit. Found 2026-07-14 in a frame audit that caught the same error on the One Chart, which had denominated its y-axis in runs since the day it was drawn. Definition: /legend#luck-gap.","at":"2026-07-14T08:11:44.831012+00:00","field":"thesis"},{"note":"Baseline frozen against an incomplete lake. This call was filed at 06:18 UTC on 2026-07-13, but its baseline (0.4944) was computed from a derived table that did not yet hold the games of 2026-07-12 — two of his balls in play were missing from it. With them, the baseline would have been 0.4879.\n\nWhy it matters: the baseline is the number a call is judged FROM. A baseline 0.0065 too high means he only has to fall 0.0105 from where he actually stood, not the 0.0170 we set. That is 38% of the threshold, and it makes this call EASIER for us. We are disclosing an error that runs in our own favour, because a ledger that only reports the mistakes which cost it is a sales brochure.\n\nThe call stands and resolves exactly as filed. No voids — the same fault made C0006's breakout 35% HARDER, and we do not get to keep the one that helps and void the one that hurts.\n\nCause: the raw games were cached but the derived tables lagged them by a day, and nothing checked. Fixed since: lake.guard() now refuses to price a call from a lake standing behind its own published boards, and every call records baseline_through — the last day of games its baseline actually saw — so this is visible on the ledger rather than buried in it.","at":"2026-07-14T16:09:11.566882+00:00","field":"baseline"}],"baseline_through":"2026-07-11","note":"auto-resolved at window end","annotated_at":"2026-07-14T15:51:59.093023+00:00","resolved_at":"2026-08-18T11:39:43.377473+00:00","resolution_value":-0.0433,"hit":true,"slug":"mickey-moniak-666160","card_image":"/cards/C0007.png","plain_terms":"We're saying the results give it back: value on contact falls at least 0.017 from the filing baseline by August 17 — 17 points, handed back. The bat never supported the stat line; gravity does the rest — or we take the miss.","receipt_image":"/receipts/C0007.png"},{"call_id":"C0008","status":"filed","drafted_at":"2026-07-13T06:18:44.952522+00:00","player_id":680869,"player_name":"Zack Gelof","archetype":"fade","thesis":"Sprint call. A +0.082 luck gap on league-average contact. The lease is up.","metric":"aval_change","threshold":-0.017,"baseline":0.4391,"window_end":"2026-08-27","filed_at":"2026-07-13T06:18:59.533128+00:00","corrections":[{"note":"process disclosure: Gelof entered the 10-day IL on 2026-07-10, three days before this engine sprint auto-filed — the autofile stage did not check roster status. The call stands and resolves under the freeze rule, no voids; a roster gate now blocks IL-listed players at draft and at publish.","at":"2026-07-13T07:11:42.079022+00:00"}],"baseline_through":"2026-07-13","note":"baseline_through recovered 2026-07-14: the as-of the baseline was actually frozen against. Found by searching for the game date whose season-to-date mean value on contact REPRODUCES the filed baseline exactly (err < 5e-5, i.e. below the 4-decimal rounding of the filed number). Additive annotation — no term of any call is changed. It is published so a reader can reproduce our baseline themselves.","annotated_at":"2026-07-14T15:51:59.094828+00:00","slug":"zack-gelof-680869","card_image":"/cards/C0008.png","plain_terms":"We're saying the results give it back: value on contact falls at least 0.017 from the filing baseline by August 27 — 17 points, handed back. The bat never supported the stat line; gravity does the rest — or we take the miss.","progress":{"days_left":0,"bip_in_window":43,"state":"target_met","current":0.4151,"baseline":0.4391,"target":0.4221,"moved":-0.024,"expected":-0.012,"moved_toward":0.024,"expected_toward":0.012,"target_toward":0.017,"line":"Called it. He is already past the number — on tonight's data this resolves HIT, and it still has to hold to the window."}},{"call_id":"C0009","status":"filed","drafted_at":"2026-07-13T06:18:45.027920+00:00","player_id":669257,"player_name":"Will Smith","archetype":"breakout","thesis":"Sprint call. The loudest gap on the board — 0.113 — on a catcher slugging under his contact quality. Physics says the results arrive; fifty-two days to show it.","metric":"aval_change","threshold":0.025,"baseline":0.3313,"window_end":"2026-09-03","filed_at":"2026-07-13T06:18:59.605953+00:00","baseline_through":"2026-07-13","note":"baseline_through recovered 2026-07-14: the as-of the baseline was actually frozen against. Found by searching for the game date whose season-to-date mean value on contact REPRODUCES the filed baseline exactly (err < 5e-5, i.e. below the 4-decimal rounding of the filed number). Additive annotation — no term of any call is changed. It is published so a reader can reproduce our baseline themselves.","annotated_at":"2026-07-14T15:51:59.096632+00:00","slug":"will-smith-669257","card_image":"/cards/C0009.png","plain_terms":"We're saying the luck turns: his results on contact climb at least +0.025 over the filing baseline by September 3. Call it a 25-point jump — points, the same way an average moves. The bat has already earned it — the stat line pays up, or we take the miss.","progress":{"days_left":7,"bip_in_window":0,"state":"holding","current":0.3313,"baseline":0.3313,"target":0.3563,"moved":0,"expected":0,"moved_toward":0,"expected_toward":0,"target_toward":0.025,"line":"Nothing to grade yet: not one ball in play since the baseline froze. The clock is running; the bat is not."}},{"call_id":"C0010","status":"resolved","drafted_at":"2026-07-14T06:09:37.491792+00:00","source":"founder","player_id":545361,"player_name":"Mike Trout","archetype":"breakout","thesis":"Sprint call. Breakout board No. 9, at thirty-four: 109.9 EV95 with results 0.069 under the physics. The contact is still elite and the line has not caught up to it — thirty days on the clock.","metric":"aval_change","threshold":0.015,"baseline":0.4258,"window_end":"2026-08-13","filed_at":"2026-07-14T06:10:03.291417+00:00","baseline_through":"2026-07-14","note":"auto-resolved at window end","annotated_at":"2026-07-14T15:51:59.098289+00:00","resolved_at":"2026-08-14T11:39:03.906767+00:00","resolution_value":-0.0028,"hit":false,"slug":"mike-trout-545361","card_image":"/cards/C0010.png","plain_terms":"We're saying the luck turns: his results on contact climb at least +0.015 over the filing baseline by August 13. Call it a 15-point jump — points, the same way an average moves. The bat has already earned it — the stat line pays up, or we take the miss.","receipt_image":"/receipts/C0010.png"},{"call_id":"C0011","status":"resolved","drafted_at":"2026-07-14T06:09:45.478161+00:00","source":"founder","player_id":671976,"player_name":"Tristan Peters","archetype":"fade","thesis":"Sprint call, filed four days after the cycle and three after the All-Star nod. Fade board No. 2: 103.7 EV95 with results 0.086 over what that contact supports. The results give it back — thirty-eight days on the clock.","metric":"aval_change","threshold":-0.015,"baseline":0.4119,"window_end":"2026-08-21","filed_at":"2026-07-14T06:10:03.371959+00:00","baseline_through":"2026-07-14","note":"auto-resolved at window end","annotated_at":"2026-07-14T15:51:59.100011+00:00","resolved_at":"2026-08-22T11:36:49.615031+00:00","resolution_value":-0.0453,"hit":true,"slug":"tristan-peters-671976","card_image":"/cards/C0011.png","plain_terms":"We're saying the results give it back: value on contact falls at least 0.015 from the filing baseline by August 21 — 15 points, handed back. The bat never supported the stat line; gravity does the rest — or we take the miss.","receipt_image":"/receipts/C0011.png"},{"call_id":"C0012","status":"resolved","drafted_at":"2026-07-15T16:03:44.764320+00:00","source":"founder","player_id":593958,"player_name":"Eduardo Rodriguez","archetype":"fade","thesis":"Fade on a lucky arm. Rodriguez is allowing 2.29 runs per nine on a 4.48 fielding-independent line — the widest gap among established starters, and a clean one (his FIP sits mid-pack). Our H-ARMGAP study says a gap this shape regresses; the runs come back.","metric":"ra9_window","threshold":1.21,"baseline":2.29,"baseline_through":"2026-07-12","window_end":"2026-08-26","filed_at":"2026-07-15T16:03:44.781217+00:00","resolved_at":"2026-08-27T11:40:45.384956+00:00","resolution_value":0.8975,"hit":false,"note":"auto-resolved at window end: in-window RA9 3.19 over 48.0 IP","slug":"eduardo-rodriguez-593958","card_image":"/cards/C0012.png","plain_terms":"We're saying the shiny ERA was luck: over the window he allows runs at a rate of at least 3.50 per nine — up from the 2.29 he'd been running, regression toward the arm his strikeouts, walks and homers actually describe. He holds the line, or we take the miss.","receipt_image":"/receipts/C0012.png"},{"call_id":"C0013","status":"filed","drafted_at":"2026-07-23T20:15:01.873581+00:00","source":"founder","player_id":527048,"player_name":"Martín Pérez","archetype":"fade","thesis":"Fade on a lucky arm. Pérez is allowing 3.16 runs per nine on a 4.81 fielding-independent line — a 1.65-run gap over 85 innings, and a clean one (his FIP sits with the pack). Our H-ARMGAP study says a gap this shape regresses; the runs come back.","metric":"ra9_window","threshold":0.83,"baseline":3.16,"baseline_through":"2026-07-23","window_end":"2026-09-06","filed_at":"2026-07-23T20:15:01.891401+00:00","slug":"martin-perez-527048","card_image":"/cards/C0013.png","plain_terms":"We're saying the shiny ERA was luck: over the window he allows runs at a rate of at least 3.99 per nine — up from the 3.16 he'd been running, regression toward the arm his strikeouts, walks and homers actually describe. He holds the line, or we take the miss.","progress":{"days_left":10,"bip_in_window":0,"state":"ungraded","line":"No live grade. This resolves at the window's close on the RA9 he posts inside it — and we grade it then, not now. The in-flight scoreboard here is built on balls in play, which is a hitter's arithmetic; a pitcher's in-window pace has no validated model yet, so we do not print one and pretend."}},{"call_id":"C0014","status":"filed","drafted_at":"2026-07-27T15:59:19.084508+00:00","source":"founder","player_id":677951,"player_name":"Bobby Witt Jr.","archetype":"breakout","thesis":"Bobby Witt Jr. has been crushing the ball — his contact is worth more than almost any hitter in baseball — but the scoreboard hasn't paid him for it. That gap between how hard he's hit and what he's gotten is the widest of any star this year, and it's held over a full season, so it isn't a fluke. We're betting the results catch up to the bat by season's end.","metric":"aval_change","threshold":0.015,"baseline":0.3878,"baseline_through":"2026-07-26","window_end":"2026-09-27","filed_at":"2026-07-27T16:19:44.939695+00:00","slug":"bobby-witt-jr-677951","card_image":"/cards/C0014.png","plain_terms":"We're saying the luck turns: his results on contact climb at least +0.015 over the filing baseline by September 27. Call it a 15-point jump — points, the same way an average moves. The bat has already earned it — the stat line pays up, or we take the miss.","progress":{"days_left":31,"bip_in_window":62,"state":"on_track","current":0.399,"baseline":0.3878,"target":0.4028,"moved":0.0112,"expected":0.0077,"moved_toward":0.0112,"expected_toward":0.0077,"target_toward":0.015,"line":"Tracking. The gap is closing about as fast as we said it would."}},{"call_id":"C0015","status":"resolved","drafted_at":"2026-07-27T15:59:24.939791+00:00","source":"founder","player_id":663647,"player_name":"Ke'Bryan Hayes","archetype":"breakout","thesis":"No one in baseball has been shortchanged like Ke'Bryan Hayes — he's squaring the ball up far better than his numbers show, the widest luck gap in the league. A hole that deep almost always fills back in. We're betting his results snap back inside a month.","metric":"aval_change","threshold":0.022,"baseline":0.2107,"baseline_through":"2026-07-26","window_end":"2026-08-26","filed_at":"2026-07-27T16:19:45.488508+00:00","resolved_at":"2026-08-27T11:40:45.396227+00:00","resolution_value":0.0138,"hit":false,"note":"auto-resolved at window end","slug":"ke-bryan-hayes-663647","card_image":"/cards/C0015.png","plain_terms":"We're saying the luck turns: his results on contact climb at least +0.022 over the filing baseline by August 26. Call it a 22-point jump — points, the same way an average moves. The bat has already earned it — the stat line pays up, or we take the miss.","receipt_image":"/receipts/C0015.png"},{"call_id":"C0016","status":"filed","drafted_at":"2026-08-24T12:10:47.066811+00:00","source":"engine","player_id":665966,"player_name":"Carlos Narváez","archetype":"breakout","thesis":"Sprint call, filed by the engine under the published rule: 105.8 EV95 with results 0.106 under the physics. 52 days on the clock.","metric":"aval_change","threshold":0.019,"baseline":0.2655,"baseline_through":"2026-08-23","window_end":"2026-10-15","filed_at":"2026-08-25T12:20:55.750113+00:00","slug":"carlos-narvaez-665966","card_image":"/cards/C0016.png","plain_terms":"We're saying the luck turns: his results on contact climb at least +0.019 over the filing baseline by October 15. Call it a 19-point jump — points, the same way an average moves. The bat has already earned it — the stat line pays up, or we take the miss.","progress":{"days_left":49,"bip_in_window":2,"state":"early","current":0.2706,"baseline":0.2655,"target":0.2845,"moved":0.0051,"expected":0.0011,"moved_toward":0.0051,"expected_toward":0.0011,"target_toward":0.019,"line":"Too early to grade. 2 balls in play since we filed, and under 25 the reading is noise, not news."}}],"generated_at":"2026-08-27T12:15:02+00:00"}