Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-08-19

SEA @ MIL

Home plate: Dexter Kelley

The kind of night where the umpire is the least of the story.

B+
Umpire Grade
93.0% accurate
0.7
Run Favor
runs, MIL
1
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Dexter Kelley called the 200 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 186 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: William Contreras — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: William Contreras — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Randy Arozarena — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Brendan Donovan — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4Challenge 5: Taylor Ward — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.698 · 3-2 ball called strike
    Brendan Donovan vs Bryse Wilson
  2. 2-0.218 · 3-0 ball called strike
    Andrew Vaughn vs Seranthony Domínguez
  3. 3+0.197 · 2-0 strike called ball
    Cole Young vs Bryse Wilson

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 4 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1William Contreras — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2William Contreras — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  3. 3Randy Arozarena — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  4. 4Brendan Donovan — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  5. 5Taylor Ward — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 5 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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