Tomorrow’s stars, in
today’s exit velocities.
We find undervalued baseball talent with validated signals — and put every call on the record before the market moves.
Data through 2026-07-11 · updated nightly
Today on the Radar
Three boards, one engine: who’s about to get better, who’s about to give it back, and who nobody is talking about yet.
Breakout
BREAKOUTContact quality outrunning results.
- 1. James Woodev95 112.1
- 2. Austin Wellsev95 106.4
- 3. Lawrence Butlerev95 109.3
Fade
FADEResults outrunning contact quality.
- 1. Mickey Moniakgap +0.094
- 2. Tristan Petersgap +0.089
- 3. Blake Dunngap +0.079
Pre-Consensus
PRE-CONSENSUSAAA tools before the prospect lists.
- 1. Spencer Jonesev95 112.5
- 2. Joshua Báezev95 110.7
- 3. Esmerlyn Valdezev95 110.6
How it works
1
Signal
Validated on 11 seasons of public play-by-play, then confirmed on a pre-registered out-of-sample holdout — protocol frozen before we looked.
2
Call
Every call is filed with a metric, a threshold, a window, and a timestamp. Falsifiable by design. Nothing is edited after filing.
3
Resolution
When the window closes, the call resolves by computation — hit or miss — and the running record stays public. Misses included.
Fever Report No. 001 · 2026-07-11
The Second-Half Board
It's the All-Star break. Here are five calls we just put on the record — who's about to get better, who's about to give it back, and one name nobody is talking about yet.
The Radar Digest
What moved overnight, which calls are on track, and who just showed up on the pre-consensus board. Free, weekly to start.
The Dugout
The FVR community: argue the boards, file your own takes, watch calls resolve live.
Join the DiscordRE24 corr 0.975 with FanGraphs · pre-registered holdout n=721 · 5 calls filed · methodology public