The Radar
Three boards from one engine. Signals validated on a pre-registered out-of-sample holdout; boards refresh nightly from that day’s games. Boards are candidates, not calls — calls get filed to the Ledger with terms.
Season 2026 · data through 2026-07-11
Breakout Board — MLB
BREAKOUTContact quality outrunning results. In the holdout test, the top quintile of this signal outgained the bottom by +1.15 annualized WAR.
| # | Player | Age | EV95 | Luck gap | Overlay | BIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edmundo Sosa | 30 | 107.6 | -0.105 | 0.984 | 114 |
| 2 | James Wood | 24 | 112.1 | -0.071 | 0.934 | 233 |
| 3 | Will Smith | 31 | 106.4 | -0.103 | 0.910 | 142 |
| 4 | Corey Seager | 32 | 107.9 | -0.092 | 0.890 | 130 |
| 5 | Mike Trout | 35 | 110.1 | -0.077 | 0.878 | 184 |
| 6 | Austin Wells | 27 | 106.4 | -0.098 | 0.871 | 129 |
| 7 | Yordan Alvarez | 29 | 111.9 | -0.064 | 0.869 | 269 |
| 8 | Aaron Judge | 34 | 110.9 | -0.067 | 0.841 | 141 |
| 9 | Brandon Nimmo | 33 | 107.0 | -0.090 | 0.834 | 261 |
| 10 | Lawrence Butler | 26 | 109.3 | -0.070 | 0.787 | 161 |
| 11 | Edouard Julien | 27 | 105.6 | -0.092 | 0.777 | 144 |
| 12 | Brent Rooker | 32 | 108.7 | -0.069 | 0.744 | 116 |
| 13 | Patrick Bailey | 27 | 105.0 | -0.089 | 0.727 | 124 |
| 14 | Bobby Witt Jr. | 26 | 111.0 | -0.052 | 0.724 | 279 |
| 15 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 27 | 110.8 | -0.053 | 0.722 | 284 |
| 16 | Adolis García | 33 | 108.1 | -0.069 | 0.715 | 150 |
| 17 | Cam Smith | 23 | 109.0 | -0.062 | 0.701 | 230 |
| 18 | Drake Baldwin | 25 | 108.4 | -0.065 | 0.698 | 203 |
| 19 | Pete Alonso | 32 | 109.2 | -0.059 | 0.691 | 253 |
| 20 | Francisco Lindor | 33 | 105.6 | -0.078 | 0.667 | 118 |
Fade Board — MLB
FADEResults outrunning contact quality. Out of sample, this gap predicted −0.62 WAR per SD (p<0.0001); the top quintile declined −0.68 annualized WAR vs the field.
| # | Player | Age | EV95 | Luck gap | Overlay | BIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mickey Moniak | 28 | 106.7 | +0.094 | -0.680 | 149 |
| 2 | Tristan Peters | 26 | 103.7 | +0.089 | -0.782 | 197 |
| 3 | Blake Dunn | 28 | 106.1 | +0.079 | -0.582 | 104 |
| 4 | Zack Gelof | 27 | 104.7 | +0.073 | -0.609 | 165 |
| 5 | Jake McCarthy | 29 | 103.8 | +0.068 | -0.612 | 224 |
| 6 | Wyatt Langford | 25 | 107.1 | +0.065 | -0.423 | 128 |
| 7 | Ceddanne Rafaela | 26 | 102.9 | +0.059 | -0.582 | 262 |
| 8 | Eugenio Suárez | 35 | 106.6 | +0.056 | -0.374 | 137 |
| 9 | Jonny DeLuca | 28 | 106.8 | +0.056 | -0.364 | 126 |
| 10 | Ernie Clement | 30 | 100.1 | +0.056 | -0.693 | 315 |
| 11 | José Caballero | 30 | 103.2 | +0.056 | -0.538 | 201 |
| 12 | Jake Mangum | 30 | 101.8 | +0.054 | -0.599 | 182 |
| 13 | Chandler Simpson | 26 | 98.2 | +0.054 | -0.776 | 290 |
| 14 | José Fermín | 27 | 100.0 | +0.053 | -0.678 | 130 |
| 15 | Otto Lopez | 28 | 106.5 | +0.048 | -0.316 | 322 |
Pre-Consensus Board — AAA Hitters
PRE-CONSENSUSMLB-caliber contact at Triple-A, before the debut. EV95 is the most stable metric in our engine (year-over-year r=0.88). Honest boundary: signals are holdout-validated at MLB; the AAA application is the frontier.
| # | Player | Age | EV95 | xVal (MLB) | AAA BIP | Debut |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spencer Jones | 25 | 112.5 | 0.600 | 104 | 2026-05-08 |
| 2 | Joshua Báez | 23 | 110.7 | 0.483 | 212 | — |
| 3 | Esmerlyn Valdez | 22 | 110.6 | 0.482 | 139 | 2026-05-22 |
| 4 | Henry Bolte | 23 | 110.6 | 0.418 | 117 | 2026-05-13 |
| 5 | Kemp Alderman | 24 | 110.2 | 0.530 | 138 | — |
| 6 | Felix Reyes | 25 | 109.7 | 0.429 | 198 | 2026-04-18 |
| 7 | Deyvison De Los Santos | 23 | 109.6 | 0.363 | 216 | 2026-03-29 |
| 8 | Ryan Clifford | 23 | 109.5 | 0.440 | 181 | — |
| 9 | Abimelec Ortiz | 24 | 109.1 | 0.427 | 201 | — |
| 10 | Héctor Rodríguez | 22 | 109.1 | 0.412 | 262 | — |
| 11 | Walker Jenkins | 21 | 109.0 | 0.372 | 113 | — |
| 12 | Charlie Condon | 23 | 108.6 | 0.429 | 212 | — |
| 13 | Blaze Jordan | 24 | 108.6 | 0.390 | 199 | 2026-06-12 |
| 14 | Willy Vasquez | 25 | 108.5 | 0.393 | 80 | — |
| 15 | Yohandy Morales | 25 | 108.5 | 0.474 | 222 | — |
| 16 | Mikey Romero | 22 | 108.4 | 0.362 | 210 | — |
| 17 | Junior Perez | 25 | 108.3 | 0.391 | 133 | 2026-06-18 |
| 18 | Jonathon Long | 24 | 108.2 | 0.373 | 258 | — |
| 19 | Victor Bericoto | 25 | 108.0 | 0.435 | 134 | 2026-05-22 |
| 20 | Pedro Ramírez | 22 | 107.9 | 0.374 | 136 | 2026-05-23 |
Pre-Consensus Board — AAA Arms
PRE-CONSENSUSMLB-calibrated stuff grades at Triple-A. Stuff-only caveat applies: stuff is not command, and our pitcher signals are not yet holdout-validated — these rows are watchlist, not calls.
| # | Pitcher | Age | Stuff | Pitches | Debut |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marques Johnson | 26 | 1.19 | 552 | — |
| 2 | Josh Ekness | 24 | 1.00 | 285 | 2026-05-03 |
| 3 | Hunter Parks | 25 | 0.94 | 297 | — |
| 4 | Daniel Espino | 25 | 0.87 | 393 | 2026-06-17 |
| 5 | Brody Hopkins | 24 | 0.81 | 1330 | — |
| 6 | Gavin Collyer | 25 | 0.80 | 294 | 2026-04-15 |
| 7 | Marco Raya | 24 | 0.78 | 578 | 2026-06-27 |
| 8 | Ryan Lambert | 24 | 0.75 | 449 | — |
| 9 | Brandan Bidois | 25 | 0.74 | 290 | 2026-05-13 |
| 10 | Alimber Santa | 23 | 0.67 | 407 | 2026-05-25 |
| 11 | Ben Peoples | 25 | 0.65 | 602 | 2026-07-04 |
| 12 | Tanner McDougal | 23 | 0.65 | 419 | — |
| 13 | Emiliano Teodo | 25 | 0.65 | 763 | — |
| 14 | Derek Diamond | 25 | 0.63 | 230 | — |
| 15 | Dylan Ross | 26 | 0.62 | 464 | — |