The Radar

Four boards from one engine — two in the majors, two at Triple-A. Signals validated on eleven seasons of baseball’s public play-by-play with a pre-registered out-of-sample holdout; boards refresh nightly from that day’s games. Boards are candidates, not calls — calls get filed to the Ledger with terms.

Every board here ranks a gap: what a player’s contact deserves against what he has actually gotten. So each table is ruled down the middle. Left of the rule is the league’s own line on him — his OPS, his ERA, the numbers everyone already has. Right of it is what our engine measures. Nothing on the left is an FVR signal or an input to one; it is there because a mispricing you can’t see the price of is just an assertion.

Collecting? Every name below goes through to a player page that opens with his cards — the flagship and the rookie, priced nightly, with the week’s move.

Season 2026 · data through 2026-08-26 · what these numbers mean →

The Drift

August 25, 2026 → August 26, 2026 · 16 moved · 2 new · 2 offshow the moves →

Rank movement between the last two nightly snapshots — and the signal that moved with it, because a rank change with no cause named is gossip. When a player’s own number holds still and he moves anyway, the field moved around him; the table shows that too.

measured through August 26, 2026

MLB Breakout Board

BREAKOUT

3 moved · 1 new · 1 off

Move	Player	Team	Rank	Overlay
▲3	Mike Trout★	LAA	19→16	0.597 → 0.614+0.017
▼2	Bobby Witt Jr.★	KC	16→18	0.614 → 0.600-0.014
▼2	Pete Alonso	BAL	18→20	0.602 → 0.596-0.006
NEW	Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	#19	0.599
OFF	Austin Wells	NYY	was 20	—

MLB Fade Board

FADE

11 moved · 1 new · 1 off

Move	Player	Team	Rank	Luck gap
▲4	Tristan Peters★	CWS	10→6	+0.058 → +0.067+0.009
▲2	Alika Williams	ATH	6→4	+0.065 → +0.073+0.008
▼2	Jonny DeLuca	TB	5→7	+0.067 → +0.065-0.002
▼1	Chandler Simpson	TB	4→5	+0.073 → +0.070-0.002
▼1	Esmerlyn Valdez	PIT	7→8	+0.063 → +0.064+0.001
▼1	Ceddanne Rafaela★	BOS	8→9	+0.062 → +0.060-0.002
▼1	Luis Campusano☆	SD	9→10	+0.059 → +0.060+0.001
▲1	Pete Crow-Armstrong★	CHC	12→11	+0.053 → +0.054+0.001
▼1	Eli White	BOS	11→12	+0.053 → +0.0530.000
▲1	Ezequiel Duran	TEX	14→13	+0.051 → +0.053+0.003
▼1	Seiya Suzuki	CHC	13→14	+0.052 → +0.051-0.001
NEW	Brendan Donovan	—	#15	+0.050
OFF	Jake Mangum	PIT	was 15	—

AAA Pre-Consensus (bat)

PRE-CONSENSUS

2 moved

Move	Player	Team	Rank	EV95
▲1	Abimelec Ortiz	WSH	10→9	109.5 → 109.50.0
▼1	Sean Keys	TOR	9→10	109.6 → 109.5-0.1

▲▼ is board position. The color is the engine’s read, not the arrow’s direction: teal means it likes him more than it did last night, oxide less. On the Fade board that flips the arrows — climbing there is not a compliment.

The Baseline — how hard the league hits it

All 373 →

Not a board — the population the boards are cut out of. Every qualified major-league hitter, ranked by EV95, no selection of any kind. The top twenty are below; the full table carries all 373, sortable, with last season’s number beside this season’s — which is the part that argues the signal travels, where a ranking only argues it is measuring the right thing.

1Oneil CruzPIT112.8SQUARE
2Junior CamineroTB112.6SQUARE
3Jac CaglianoneKC112.5SQUARE
4Yordan AlvarezHOU112.3OWED
5Jordan WalkerSTL112.2PAID
6James WoodWSH112.1OWED
7Nick KurtzATH112.0SQUARE
8Fernando Tatis Jr.SD111.8OWED
9Elly De La CruzCIN111.6SQUARE
10Henry BolteATH111.5PAID
11Shohei OhtaniLAD111.3SQUARE
12Coby MayoBAL111.1SQUARE
13Willson ContrerasBOS111.1SQUARE
14Aaron JudgeNYY110.9OWED
15Bobby Witt Jr.KC110.9OWED
16Garrett MitchellMIL110.7SQUARE
17Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR110.6OWED
18Agustín RamírezMIA110.6SQUARE
19Taylor TrammellHOU110.5SQUARE
20Luis Robert Jr.NYM110.4SQUARE

2026 · 2025 (no hollow dot = no qualified 2025) · the tick is the league median · OWED/PAID is whether his results have kept up with his contact. The track runs 97–113 mph — the whole qualified league, which is why these twenty all sit at the right-hand end of it. All of it, with the market beside it →

Breakout Board — MLB

BREAKOUT

These men are hitting the ball too hard for the line they are getting. The bat is real and the box score has not caught up — and the box score tends to catch up. Every name here is OWED on the Baseline — that is what the board selects for, so the word is in the blurb rather than in a column repeating itself twenty times.

Sort every hitter by this score and split them into five groups. On seasons the model had never seen, the top group beat the bottom group by +1.15 annualized WAR — better than a win over a full season. We wrote that test down and froze it in public before we looked.

				What the market sees		What the engine sees
#	Player	Team	Age	OPS	G	EV95	Luck gap	Overlay	BIP
1	Ke'Bryan Hayes	CIN	29	.463	78	104.8	-0.145	1.172	151
2	Edouard Julien	COL	27	.614	88	105.6	-0.113	0.952	164
3	James Wood★IL10	WSH	23	.928	114	112.1	-0.069	0.913	284
4	Will SmithIL60	LAD	31	.720	52	106.4	-0.101	0.896	142
5	Aaron JudgeIL60	NYY	34	.908	59	110.9	-0.066	0.830	141
6	Carlos Narváez	BAL	27	.487	79	105.7	-0.095	0.810	141
7	Brent RookerIL60	ATH	31	.670	48	108.7	-0.069	0.743	116
8	Edmundo Sosa	PHI	30	.640	68	107.6	-0.073	0.727	153
9	Adolis GarcíaIL60	PHI	33	.599	67	108.1	-0.069	0.722	150
10	Yordan Alvarez★♛	HOU	29	1.051	131	112.3	-0.044	0.720	370
11	Patrick Bailey	CLE	27	.575	91	106.0	-0.080	0.703	184
12	Lars Nootbaar	AZ	28	.657	64	108.8	-0.062	0.693	160
13	Luke RaleyIL60	SEA	31	.723	95	108.5	-0.057	0.642	168
14	Brady House	WSH	23	.680	70	108.8	-0.055	0.641	170
15	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	27	.687	119	110.6	-0.042	0.622	383
16▲3	Mike Trout★	LAA	35	.816	115	109.8	-0.046	0.614	283
17	Moisés Ballesteros	LAA	22	.600	79	107.0	-0.062	0.611	177
18▼2	Bobby Witt Jr.★	KC	26	.824	115	110.9	-0.037	0.600	352
19NEW	Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	27	.801	132	111.8	-0.032	0.599	414
20▼2	Pete Alonso	BAL	31	.881	133	109.4	-0.046	0.596	365

Left of the rule is the league’s own line on the player — his results, not our numbers, and never an input to any FVR signal. Right of it is what the engine measures. The board ranks the distance between them.

▲▼ beside the rank is last night’s move on this board. Teal is up the board, oxide is down. The Drift shows what moved.

OPS — On-base plus slugging — the league's own line, not an FVR signal · G — Games played — how much season is behind that line · EV95 — 95th-percentile exit velocity (mph) — how hard he hits it at his best · Luck gap — Results on contact minus what the launch physics support, park-adjusted · Overlay — Higher means the bat is real and the numbers haven't caught up yet · BIP — Sample size — how many batted balls the signals are measured on

Fade Board — MLB

FADE

These men are being paid for balls that were not struck well enough to keep paying. The bloops stop falling. The line comes back to the bat. This board is not a list of bad players — it is a list of hitters whose luck gap we expect to close, and closing it costs them. Every name here has been PAID on the Baseline, which is the same sentence measured instead of said.

On seasons the model had never seen, the top of this board gave back −0.68 annualized WAR against the field — about two-thirds of a win. Per standard deviation of the gap: −0.62 WAR, at p <0.0001 — meaning a pattern this size turns up by chance less than once in ten thousand tries.

					What the market sees		What the engine sees
#	Player	Team	Age	Sprint	OPS	G	EV95	Luck gap	Overlay	BIP
1	Blake DunnIL60	CIN	27	29.6	.722	38	106.1	+0.078	-0.578	104
2	Alex Call	LAD	31	27.9	.701	70	99.7	+0.077	-0.892	106
3	Mickey Moniak	COL	28	28.3	.811	94	106.0	+0.074	-0.545	241
4▲2	Alika Williams	ATH	27	27.8	.720	66	104.1	+0.073	-0.632	114
5▼1	Chandler Simpson	TB	25	29.5	.697	125	98.0	+0.070	-0.918	434
6▲4	Tristan Peters★	CWS	26	28.6	.821	128	103.7	+0.067	-0.603	289
7▼2	Jonny DeLuca	TB	28	29.3	.736	86	106.6	+0.065	-0.447	210
8▼1	Esmerlyn Valdez	PIT	22	27.9	.899	63	110.3	+0.064	-0.251	114
9▼1	Ceddanne Rafaela★	BOS	25	29.0	.778	128	103.0	+0.060	-0.581	398
10▼1	Luis Campusano☆	SD	27	25.9	.862	51	105.9	+0.060	-0.438	105
11▲1	Pete Crow-Armstrong★	CHC	24	29.5	.924	134	108.3	+0.054	-0.270	352
12▼1	Eli White	BOS	32	30.2	.662	83	105.1	+0.053	-0.422	118
13▲1	Ezequiel Duran	TEX	27	28.9	.779	125	106.2	+0.053	-0.369	322
14▼1	Seiya Suzuki	CHC	32	27.9	.842	116	108.9	+0.051	-0.216	314
15NEW	Brendan DonovanIL7	SEA	29	25.7	—	—	101.2	+0.050	-0.591	113

▲▼ beside the rank is last night’s move on this board. The color is the engine’s read, not the arrow’s direction — climbing this board means it likes him less, so here ▼ is the good news. The Drift shows what moved.

Sprint — Feet per second on his best runs — Statcast's, not ours. Printed on the Fade board; never ranked on. · OPS — On-base plus slugging — the league's own line, not an FVR signal · G — Games played — how much season is behind that line · EV95 — 95th-percentile exit velocity (mph) — how hard he hits it at his best · Luck gap — Results on contact minus what the launch physics support, park-adjusted · Overlay — Higher means the bat is real and the numbers haven't caught up yet · BIP — Sample size — how many batted balls the signals are measured on

Pre-Consensus Board — AAA Hitters

PRE-CONSENSUS

Big-league contact, at Triple-A. We rank the qualifying AAA sample by EV95 and hold the consensus top 25 off this board on purpose — “pre-consensus” has to mean the market hasn’t priced these tools yet. The rank stands on the Triple-A sample: a man who’s since had a cup of coffee (the Debut column) keeps his place, graded on the bat before he left.

EV95 — how hard a man hits it when he really connects — is the most stable thing we measure: this year predicts next year at r = 0.88, closer to a fingerprint than to a stat. Honest boundary: our signals are holdout-validated at the major-league level. Running them at Triple-A is the frontier, not the proven core, and we would rather say so than let you assume otherwise.

					What the market sees		What the engine sees
#	Player	Org	Age	Debut	AAA OPS	G	EV95	xVal (MLB)	AAA BIP
1	Spencer Jones↑MLB	NYY	25	2026-05-08	.942	54	112.6	0.599	123
2	Joshua Báez	STL	23	—	.901	103	110.8	0.477	272
3	Esmerlyn Valdez	PIT	22	2026-05-22	—	—	110.6	0.482	139
4	Henry Bolte↑MLB	ATH	23	2026-05-13	1.076	37	110.6	0.418	117
5	Kemp Alderman	MIA	24	—	.814	88	110.2	0.505	199
6	Yohendrick Piñango↑MLB	TOR	24	2026-04-26	.812	51	110.0	0.411	138
7	Lazaro Montes	SEA	21	—	.925	40	109.8	0.482	103
8	Deyvison De Los Santos	MIA	23	2026-03-29	.836	97	109.6	0.366	284
9▲1	Abimelec Ortiz	WSH	24	—	.845	85	109.5	0.434	239
10▼1	Sean Keys	TOR	23	2026-06-27	1.034	47	109.5	0.461	131
11	Felix Reyes	PHI	25	2026-04-18	.829	85	109.5	0.398	275
12	Héctor Rodríguez	CIN	22	—	.880	104	108.9	0.394	309
13	Charlie Condon	COL	23	—	.897	109	108.6	0.417	292
14	Ryan Clifford	NYM	23	—	.611	104	108.6	0.421	212
15	Blaze Jordan	STL	23	2026-06-12	.921	57	108.6	0.390	199
16	Willy Vasquez	BAL	24	—	.679	46	108.5	0.393	80†
17	Yohandy Morales	WSH	24	—	.886	100	108.4	0.467	275
18	Junior Perez	CWS	25	2026-06-18	.700	73	108.2	0.382	164
19	Mikey Romero	BOS	22	—	.683	97	108.1	0.357	292
20	Victor Bericoto	SF	24	2026-05-22	.763	47	108.1	0.427	142

▲▼ beside the rank is last night’s move on this board. Teal is up the board, oxide is down. The Drift shows what moved.

↑MLB — now in the majors. This ranking is built on a Triple-A sample that has closed: he has played more in the big leagues than at Triple-A this season and is no longer adding to the number shown. It is a finished reading, not where he stands today.

† Thin sample — under 20 innings, under 100 balls in play, or under 20 games. The number beside it is a rumor, not a reading. We flag them rather than quietly rank them.

AAA OPS — On-base plus slugging — the league's own line, not an FVR signal · G — Games played — how much season is behind that line · EV95 — 95th-percentile exit velocity (mph) — how hard he hits it at his best · xVal (MLB) — A Triple-A hitter's contact graded on the major-league value grid · AAA BIP — Sample size — how many batted balls the signals are measured on

Pre-Consensus Board — AAA Arms

PRE-CONSENSUS

How good the pitch is, at Triple-A — how it moves, how fast, from where. Not how well he throws it where he means to. Stuff is not command, and that gap is the whole reason no arm on this site ever gets a call.

Our stuff grade is stability-validated — a pitcher who grades well one year grades well the next (r = 0.87) — but it has never been put through the pre-registered out-of-sample test the hitting signals passed. So these rows are a watchlist, never a call. The ERA column is that caveat printed: a high grade sitting next to a fat ERA is precisely what a stuff-only signal cannot see, and we leave it on the board rather than hide it.

					What the market sees		What the engine sees
#	Pitcher	Org	Age	Debut	AAA ERA	IP	Stuff	Pitches
1	Marques Johnson	SF	26	—	5.34	30.1	1.18	577
2	Josh Ekness	MIA	24	2026-05-03	3.86	21.0	0.99	358
3	Anthony Nunez↑MLB	BAL	25	2026-03-28	5.25	12.0†	0.94	227
4	Gavin Collyer	TEX	25	2026-04-15	2.54	28.1	0.87	487
5	Daniel Espino	CLE	25	2026-06-17	4.01	33.2	0.81	638
6	Brody Hopkins	TB	24	—	5.52	88.0	0.80	1686
7	Marco Raya	MIN	24	2026-06-27	6.08	53.1	0.77	862
8	Ryan Lambert	NYM	23	—	6.35	22.2	0.71	475
9	Alimber Santa	HOU	23	2026-05-25	3.72	36.1	0.69	620
10	Derek Diamond	PIT	25	—	3.99	29.1	0.67	450
11	Brandan Bidois	MIA	25	2026-05-13	7.89	21.2	0.64	429
12	Ben Peoples	TEX	25	2026-07-04	3.00	39.0	0.64	639
13	Emiliano Teodo	TEX	25	—	3.35	53.2	0.63	984
14	Hunter Parks	CIN	25	—	8.90	31.1	0.61	628
15	Reidis Sena	BOS	25	—	8.71	10.1†	0.59	225

† Thin sample — under 20 innings, under 100 balls in play, or under 20 games. The number beside it is a rumor, not a reading. We flag them rather than quietly rank them.

AAA ERA — Earned run average — the league's own line, not an FVR signal · IP — Innings pitched — the decimal is thirds, so 71.2 means 71⅔ · Stuff — Our pitch-quality grade — stability-validated, not outcome-validated. Stuff is not command. · Pitches — Sample size for the stuff grade — tracked pitches