The Radar

Four boards from one engine — two in the majors, two at Triple-A. Signals validated on eleven seasons of baseball’s public play-by-play with a pre-registered out-of-sample holdout; boards refresh nightly from that day’s games. Boards are candidates, not calls — calls get filed to the Ledger with terms.

Every board here ranks a gap: what a player’s contact deserves against what he has actually gotten. So each table is ruled down the middle. Left of the rule is the league’s own line on him — his OPS, his ERA, the numbers everyone already has. Right of it is what our engine measures. Nothing on the left is an FVR signal or an input to one; it is there because a mispricing you can’t see the price of is just an assertion.

Collecting? Every name below goes through to a player page that opens with his cards — the flagship and the rookie, priced nightly, with the week’s move.

Season 2026 · final — through September 27, 2026; resumes Opening Day, March 25, 2027 · what these numbers mean →

The Drift

September 26, 2026 → September 27, 2026 · 19 moved · 3 new · 3 offshow the moves →

Rank movement between the last two nightly snapshots — and the signal that moved with it, because a rank change with no cause named is gossip. When a player’s own number holds still and he moves anyway, the field moved around him; the table shows that too.

measured through September 27, 2026

MLB Breakout Board

BREAKOUT

9 moved · 2 new · 2 off

Move	Player	Team	Rank	Overlay
▼3	Corey Seager	TEX	8→11	0.690 → 0.665-0.024
▼3	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	15→18	0.605 → 0.604-0.001
▼2	Will Smith	LAD	18→20	0.592 → 0.592-0.001
▲1	Pete Alonso	BAL	9→8	0.687 → 0.6870.000
▲1	Bobby Witt Jr.★	KC	10→9	0.678 → 0.675-0.003
▼1	Patrick Bailey	CLE	11→12	0.657 → 0.656-0.001
▼1	Luke Raley	SEA	12→13	0.642 → 0.644+0.002
▼1	Jarren Duran	BOS	13→14	0.633 → 0.637+0.004
▼1	Mike Trout★	LAA	14→15	0.618 → 0.618+0.001
NEW	Jahmai Jones	—	#10	0.673
NEW	J.T. Realmuto	—	#19	0.598
OFF	Yordan Alvarez★♛	HOU	was 19	—
OFF	Henry Davis	PIT	was 20	—

MLB Fade Board

FADE

10 moved · 1 new · 1 off

Move	Player	Team	Rank	Luck gap
▲4	Jonny DeLuca	TB	7→3	+0.075 → +0.081+0.007
▼4	Héctor Rodríguez☆	CIN	4→8	+0.079 → +0.073-0.007
▲3	Brenton Doyle	CWS	14→11	+0.053 → +0.061+0.007
▼2	Tyler Tolbert	KC	10→12	+0.062 → +0.059-0.003
▼2	Javier Sanoja	MIA	12→14	+0.056 → +0.051-0.004
▼1	Alika Williams	ATH	3→4	+0.081 → +0.0810.000
▲1	Samad Taylor	SD	6→5	+0.077 → +0.079+0.002
▼1	Blake Dunn	CIN	5→6	+0.078 → +0.0780.000
▲1	Nick Allen	HOU	8→7	+0.070 → +0.075+0.005
▲1	Nolan Arenado	AZ	11→10	+0.062 → +0.0610.000
NEW	Ty France	—	#15	+0.051
OFF	Ceddanne Rafaela★	BOS	was 15	—

▲▼ is board position. The color is the engine’s read, not the arrow’s direction: teal means it likes him more than it did last night, oxide less. On the Fade board that flips the arrows — climbing there is not a compliment.

The Baseline — how hard the league hits it

All 406 →

Not a board — the population the boards are cut out of. Every qualified major-league hitter, ranked by EV95, no selection of any kind. The top twenty are below; the full table carries all 406, sortable, with last season’s number beside this season’s — which is the part that argues the signal travels, where a ranking only argues it is measuring the right thing.

1James WoodWSH112.8OWED
2Oneil CruzPIT112.6PAID
3Jac CaglianoneKC112.3SQUARE
4Jordan WalkerSTL112.1SQUARE
5Junior CamineroTB112.1SQUARE
6Nick KurtzATH112.0SQUARE
7Elly De La CruzCIN111.7SQUARE
8Fernando Tatis Jr.SD111.5SQUARE
9Yordan AlvarezHOU111.5OWED
10Henry BolteATH111.2PAID
11Shohei OhtaniLAD111.2OWED
12Coby MayoBAL110.9SQUARE
13Aaron JudgeNYY110.8OWED
14Willson ContrerasBOS110.7SQUARE
15Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR110.7OWED
16Bobby Witt Jr.KC110.7OWED
17Spencer JonesNYY110.6SQUARE
18Garrett MitchellMIL110.5SQUARE
19Agustín RamírezMIA110.5SQUARE
20Luis Robert Jr.BAL110.5SQUARE

2026 · 2025 (no hollow dot = no qualified 2025) · the tick is the league median · OWED/PAID is whether his results have kept up with his contact. The track runs 97–113 mph — the whole qualified league, which is why these twenty all sit at the right-hand end of it. All of it, with the market beside it →

Breakout Board — MLB

BREAKOUT

These men are hitting the ball too hard for the line they are getting. The bat is real and the box score has not caught up — and the box score tends to catch up. Every name here is OWED on the Baseline — that is what the board selects for, so the word is in the blurb rather than in a column repeating itself twenty times.

Sort every hitter by this score and split them into five groups. On seasons the model had never seen, the top group beat the bottom group by +1.15 annualized WAR — better than a win over a full season. We wrote that test down and froze it in public before we looked.

				What the market sees		What the engine sees
#	Player	Team	Age	OPS	G	EV95	Luck gap	Overlay	BIP
1	Ke'Bryan Hayes	CIN	29	.419	94	104.8	-0.141	1.138	174
2	Edouard Julien	COL	27	.614	88	105.6	-0.114	0.957	164
3	James Wood★	WSH	24	.891	135	112.8	-0.059	0.872	334
4	Aaron Judge	NYY	34	.871	66	110.8	-0.065	0.818	151
5	Carlos Narváez	BAL	27	.467	95	105.6	-0.091	0.776	166
6	Brent RookerIL60	ATH	31	.670	48	108.7	-0.068	0.742	116
7	Adolis GarcíaIL60	PHI	33	.599	67	108.1	-0.068	0.714	150
8▲1	Pete Alonso	BAL	31	.885	161	109.5	-0.056	0.687	435
9▲1	Bobby Witt Jr.★	KC	26	.800	143	110.7	-0.048	0.675	443
10NEW	Jahmai Jones	BOS	29	.667	94	109.0	-0.058	0.673	101
11▼3	Corey Seager	TEX	32	.736	102	107.7	-0.065	0.665	284
12▼1	Patrick Bailey	CLE	27	.607	112	106.0	-0.074	0.656	221
13▼1	Luke RaleyIL60	SEA	32	.723	95	108.5	-0.057	0.644	168
14▼1	Jarren Duran	BOS	30	.627	151	109.4	-0.051	0.637	392
15▼1	Mike Trout★	LAA	35	.803	142	109.6	-0.047	0.618	346
16	Salvador Perez	KC	36	.657	152	107.3	-0.060	0.610	468
17	Shohei Ohtani	LAD	32	.889	139	111.2	-0.036	0.606	369
18▼3	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	TOR	27	.688	144	110.7	-0.039	0.604	462
19NEW	J.T. Realmuto	PHI	35	.614	123	105.6	-0.069	0.598	316
20▼2	Will Smith	LAD	31	.781	73	105.4	-0.070	0.592	194

Left of the rule is the league’s own line on the player — his results, not our numbers, and never an input to any FVR signal. Right of it is what the engine measures. The board ranks the distance between them.

▲▼ beside the rank is last night’s move on this board. Teal is up the board, oxide is down. The Drift shows what moved.

OPS — On-base plus slugging — the league's own line, not an FVR signal · G — Games played — how much season is behind that line · EV95 — 95th-percentile exit velocity (mph) — how hard he hits it at his best · Luck gap — Results on contact minus what the launch physics support, park-adjusted · Overlay — Higher means the bat is real and the numbers haven't caught up yet · BIP — Sample size — how many batted balls the signals are measured on

Fade Board — MLB

FADE

These men are being paid for balls that were not struck well enough to keep paying. The bloops stop falling. The line comes back to the bat. This board is not a list of bad players — it is a list of hitters whose luck gap we expect to close, and closing it costs them. Every name here has been PAID on the Baseline, which is the same sentence measured instead of said.

On seasons the model had never seen, the top of this board gave back −0.68 annualized WAR against the field — about two-thirds of a win. Per standard deviation of the gap: −0.62 WAR, at p <0.0001 — meaning a pattern this size turns up by chance less than once in ten thousand tries.

					What the market sees		What the engine sees
#	Player	Team	Age	Sprint	OPS	G	EV95	Luck gap	Overlay	BIP
1	Esteury Ruiz	MIA	27	29.9	.699	109	103.6	+0.092	-0.810	131
2	Brett Bateman	TOR	24	28.8	.826	41	100.3	+0.085	-0.921	125
3▲4	Jonny DeLuca	TB	28	29.3	.729	112	106.8	+0.081	-0.566	271
4▼1	Alika Williams	ATH	27	28.0	.735	88	103.9	+0.081	-0.708	168
5▲1	Samad Taylor	SD	28	29.2	.798	47	99.8	+0.079	-0.895	111
6▼1	Blake DunnIL60	CIN	28	29.6	.722	38	106.1	+0.078	-0.579	104
7▲1	Nick Allen	HOU	28	26.9	.720	94	103.0	+0.075	-0.707	118
8▼4	Héctor Rodríguez☆	CIN	22	28.2	.680	41	107.5	+0.073	-0.463	104
9	Chandler Simpson	TB	25	29.4	.689	151	98.2	+0.063	-0.849	531
10▲1	Nolan Arenado	AZ	35	25.1	.806	152	103.8	+0.062	-0.556	414
11▲3	Brenton Doyle	CWS	28	29.3	.637	87	105.9	+0.061	-0.445	135
12▼2	Tyler Tolbert	KC	28	29.3	.739	80	102.9	+0.058	-0.576	104
13	Alex Call	LAD	32	27.8	.656	88	99.6	+0.053	-0.695	128
14▼2	Javier Sanoja	MIA	24	28.6	.791	144	103.4	+0.051	-0.493	419
15NEW	Ty France	SD	32	24.7	.865	133	106.4	+0.051	-0.339	337

▲▼ beside the rank is last night’s move on this board. The color is the engine’s read, not the arrow’s direction — climbing this board means it likes him less, so here ▼ is the good news. The Drift shows what moved.

Sprint — Feet per second on his best runs — Statcast's, not ours. Printed on the Fade board; never ranked on. · OPS — On-base plus slugging — the league's own line, not an FVR signal · G — Games played — how much season is behind that line · EV95 — 95th-percentile exit velocity (mph) — how hard he hits it at his best · Luck gap — Results on contact minus what the launch physics support, park-adjusted · Overlay — Higher means the bat is real and the numbers haven't caught up yet · BIP — Sample size — how many batted balls the signals are measured on

Triple-A Board — Hitters

TRIPLE-A

Big-league contact, at Triple-A. Every qualifying Triple-A bat who is 25 or under and hasn’t reached the majors, ranked by EV95 — no name is held off it. Until September 17, 2026 this board held the consensus top 25 off itself, on the theory that a board called “pre-consensus” had to mean the market hadn’t priced these tools yet; it is named for what it measures now. The rank stands on the Triple-A sample: a man who’s since had a cup of coffee (the Debut column) keeps his place, graded on the bat before he left.

EV95 — how hard a man hits it when he really connects — is the most stable thing we measure: this year predicts next year at r = 0.88, closer to a fingerprint than to a stat. Honest boundary: our signals are holdout-validated at the major-league level. Running them at Triple-A is the frontier, not the proven core, and we would rather say so than let you assume otherwise.

					What the market sees		What the engine sees
#	Player	Org	Age	Debut	AAA OPS	G	EV95	xVal (MLB)	AAA BIP
1	Spencer Jones↑MLB	NYY	25	2026-05-08	.942	54	112.6	0.599	123
2	Joshua Báez☆	STL	23	2026-08-15	.901	103	110.8	0.477	272
3	Emmanuel Rodriguez	MIN	23	2026-09-12	.914	49	110.7	0.397	110
4	Gabriel Rincones Jr.	PHI	25	2026-06-12	.768	44	110.7	0.436	109
5	Esmerlyn Valdez↑MLB	PIT	22	2026-05-22	.914	56	110.6	0.482	139
6	Henry Bolte↑MLB	ATH	23	2026-05-13	1.076	37	110.6	0.418	117
7	Chase Davis	STL	24	—	.692	50	110.2	0.324	124
8	Kemp Alderman	MIA	24	—	.769	105	110.1	0.479	240
9	Kala'i Rosario	MIN	24	—	.913	42	110.0	0.378	101
10	Lazaro Montes	SEA	21	2026-09-01	.940	44	109.9	0.490	112
11	Yohendrick Piñango	TOR	24	2026-04-26	.806	70	109.7	0.397	188
12	Abimelec Ortiz	WSH	24	2026-07-12	.845	85	109.5	0.434	239
13	Felix Reyes	PHI	25	2026-04-18	.829	85	109.5	0.398	275
14	Deyvison De Los Santos	MIA	23	2026-03-29	.838	102	109.4	0.372	297
15	Sean Keys	TOR	23	2026-06-27	1.044	51	109.2	0.469	140
16	Héctor Rodríguez☆	CIN	22	2026-08-04	—	—	108.9	0.394	309
17	Derek Berg	PIT	25	—	.553	39	108.8	0.360	80†
18	Blaze Jordan↑MLB	STL	23	2026-06-12	.921	57	108.6	0.390	199
19	Ryan Clifford	NYM	23	—	.640	115	108.6	0.425	234
20	Willy Vasquez	—	25	—	.679	46	108.5	0.393	80†

↑MLB — now in the majors. This ranking is built on a Triple-A sample that has closed: he has played more in the big leagues than at Triple-A this season and is no longer adding to the number shown. It is a finished reading, not where he stands today.

† Thin sample — under 20 innings, under 100 balls in play, or under 20 games. The number beside it is a rumor, not a reading. We flag them rather than quietly rank them.

AAA OPS — On-base plus slugging — the league's own line, not an FVR signal · G — Games played — how much season is behind that line · EV95 — 95th-percentile exit velocity (mph) — how hard he hits it at his best · xVal (MLB) — A Triple-A hitter's contact graded on the major-league value grid · AAA BIP — Sample size — how many batted balls the signals are measured on

Triple-A Board — Arms

TRIPLE-A

How good the pitch is, at Triple-A — how it moves, how fast, from where. Not how well he throws it where he means to. Stuff is not command, and that gap is the whole reason no arm on this site ever gets a call.

Our stuff grade is stability-validated — a pitcher who grades well one year grades well the next (r = 0.87) — but it has never been put through the pre-registered out-of-sample test the hitting signals passed. So these rows are a watchlist, never a call. The ERA column is that caveat printed: a high grade sitting next to a fat ERA is precisely what a stuff-only signal cannot see, and we leave it on the board rather than hide it.

					What the market sees		What the engine sees
#	Pitcher	Org	Age	Debut	AAA ERA	IP	Stuff	Pitches
1	Marques Johnson	SF	26	—	5.34	30.1	1.18	577
2	Josh Ekness↑MLB	MIA	24	2026-05-03	3.86	21.0	0.99	358
3	Anthony Nunez↑MLB	BAL	25	2026-03-28	4.85	13.0†	0.93	240
4	Gavin Collyer	TEX	25	2026-04-15	2.37	30.1	0.88	518
5	Brody Hopkins	TB	24	2026-09-13	5.17	94.0	0.81	1787
6	Daniel Espino	CLE	25	2026-06-17	3.68	36.2	0.80	680
7	Marco Raya	MIN	24	2026-06-27	5.32	64.1	0.80	1025
8	Emiliano Teodo	TEX	25	2026-07-17	3.73	60.1	0.64	1101
9	Alimber Santa	HOU	23	2026-05-25	4.93	45.2	0.64	814
10	Ryan Lambert	—	24	—	7.71	25.2	0.63	559
11	Hunter Parks	CIN	25	—	7.14	40.1	0.63	793
12	Brandan Bidois	MIA	25	2026-05-13	8.87	22.1	0.62	457
13	Derek Diamond	PIT	25	—	3.14	43.0	0.62	672
14	Ben Peoples	TEX	25	2026-07-04	3.11	46.1	0.60	746
15	Reidis Sena	BOS	25	—	8.71	10.1†	0.59	225

† Thin sample — under 20 innings, under 100 balls in play, or under 20 games. The number beside it is a rumor, not a reading. We flag them rather than quietly rank them.

AAA ERA — Earned run average — the league's own line, not an FVR signal · IP — Innings pitched — the decimal is thirds, so 71.2 means 71⅔ · Stuff — Our pitch-quality grade — stability-validated, not outcome-validated. Stuff is not command. · Pitches — Sample size for the stuff grade — tracked pitches