Ceddanne Rafaela

The Line of the Day

2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI — Sat, Aug 1 · night game vs. Los Angeles Dodgers The scorecard →

The card rack

FlagshipCeddanne Rafaela #GH-3 · 2026 Topps Greatest Hits · 125 recent sales 7N ▼0.4%

$1.36Raw$12.09PSA 9$35.90PSA 10$47.00BGS 10PSA 10 · 46 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-08-27 · paid links

$0.99Ungraded$0.99Ungraded$0.99Ungraded

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The rookieCeddanne Rafaela #313 · 2024 Topps · 136 recent sales 7N ▲0%

$1.38Raw$9.94PSA 9$21.87PSA 10$28.00BGS 10PSA 10 · 42 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-08-27 · paid links

$1.25Ungraded$1.29Ungraded$1.35Ungraded

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Paid link — as an eBay Partner, FVR earns from qualifying purchases. · Flagship = his most-traded card (the market’s reference); the rookie = the top card of his first card year. As of August 27, 2026 · trend is FVR's own nightly archive · prices via SportsCardsPro · what these terms mean

Scout’s note

At 103.06, Rafaela's EV95 is below the league median of 105.9, and his season line — .288 with 16 home runs and 66 RBI — reads like a player who's found another gear the barrel doesn't confirm. The 0.062 luck gap and No. 8 fade-board ranking say more than 98% of the 372 qualified hitters trail him in the distance between results and contact quality. From Willemstad, Curacao, he debuted in August 2023 and has already played 463 big-league games at 25, with a career .259 average, 49 home runs, and 4.4 WAR — a number that reflects his glove in center as much as his bat. He's put 395 balls in play this year and carries 59 career stolen bases, and the speed and defense are the floor. The engine's concern is the bat: 108 strikeouts and soft contact don't usually hold a .288 average, and the fade board says the line is ahead of the swing.

Current signals

The read: Rafaela's results are outrunning his contact by more than 98% of the 373 qualified MLB hitters we track — an EV95 of 103.0 (league median 105.8) doesn't usually buy this stat line. Gaps like his tend to close from above; No. 9 of 15 on the fade board.

PAID — his line has outrun his contact. Where he sits in the league →

EV95 (mph)

103.03

Luck gap (park-adj)

0.06

Overlay score

-0.5814

WAR (season · MLB calc)

4.3

Balls in play

398

Sprint (ft/s)

29.0

Age

25

A market fact, not an engine read: what a club decided about him, on the season before this one. Figures from Cot’s, as of August 14, 2026.

2026 salary

$2.25M

Tax hit

$6.25M

Service time

2 yr 35 d

Guaranteed

$50M

Cash and the tax hit are two different rulebooks and are never subtracted from one another — see the payroll board for his club, Boston Red Sox.

A second set of books

The same contract, read by MLB Spreadsheets (Ethan Hullihen), as of August 20, 2026. We keep two sources on this because one source cannot check itself.

Tax AAV

$6.3M

Guaranteed

$50.0M

Term

8 yrs

His class

Extension

The tax AAV above is his number under the CBA’s own rulebook, not the average we work out from Cot’s total. On a contract with deferred money the two come apart on purpose — and neither is subtracted from the other.

Collect Ceddanne Rafaela

If the signal is right, the cardboard usually finds out later. Current listings:

High-end listings ($75+) →

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Not financial advice. We take positions only after publication — never before. Misses stay on the record.

The Bureau on Ceddanne Rafaela

The scouting press, in their own words