Patrick Bailey

The card rack

FlagshipPatrick Bailey #GH-21 · 2026 Topps Greatest Hits · 78 recent sales 7N ▼0.1%

$1.30Raw$12.01PSA 9$35.70PSA 10$46.00BGS 10PSA 10 · 41 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-08-27 · paid links

$0.99Ungraded$1.00Ungraded$1.00Used

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The rookiePatrick Bailey #B23-PB · 2023 Bowman's Best of Autographs · 42 recent sales 7N ▼0.2%

$4.08Raw$19.95PSA 9$72.67PSA 10$94.00BGS 10PSA 10 · 37 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-08-27 · paid links

$8.99Ungraded$9.51Ungraded$9.99Ungraded

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Paid link — as an eBay Partner, FVR earns from qualifying purchases. · Flagship = his most-traded card (the market’s reference); the rookie = the top card of his first card year. As of August 27, 2026 · trend is FVR's own nightly archive · prices via SportsCardsPro · what these terms mean

Scout’s note

Patrick Bailey was a 2020 first-round pick out of Greensboro who reached the majors in 2023, and the engine sees a catcher whose bat is better than his second full season suggests. His EV95 of 105.985 sits right at the 105.9 league median — 51st percentile, nothing spectacular — but his results on contact trail the physics further than 99 percent of the 372-hitter sample, the widest luck gap on the breakout board at -0.0799. He's hitting .194 with a .575 OPS through 90 games, and 71 strikeouts in that span have helped keep the ball from finding grass even when he squares it. Over the last two weeks, though, he's put up a .827 OPS with six walks in nine games, and the engine has him at No. 11 on the board because the contact quality, while ordinary, is still producing far less than it should. A career .223 hitter with 28 home runs in 443 games, Bailey isn't a power threat — but the gap says he should be hitting more than .194.

Current signals

The read: Bailey is hitting the ball harder than 51% of the 373 qualified MLB hitters in our sample (EV95 106.0; league median 105.8), while his results on contact run further below the physics than 99% of them. Loud bat, quieter stat line — the breakout shape; he ranks No. 11 of 20 on the breakout board.

OWED — his contact has outrun his line. Where he sits in the league →

EV95 (mph)

105.985

Luck gap (park-adj)

-0.08

Overlay score

0.7025

WAR (season · MLB calc)

0.6

Balls in play

184

Sprint (ft/s)

25.3

Age

27

A market fact, not an engine read: what a club decided about him, on the season before this one. Figures from Cot’s, as of August 7, 2026.

2026 salary

$0.61Mest

Tax hit

$0.61M

Service time

2 yr 136 d

Options left

3 / 3

Cash and the tax hit are two different rulebooks and are never subtracted from one another — see the payroll board for his club, Cleveland Guardians.

A second set of books

The same contract, read by MLB Spreadsheets (Ethan Hullihen), as of August 20, 2026. We keep two sources on this because one source cannot check itself.

Tax AAV

$0.81M

Guaranteed

$0.81M

Term

1 yr

His class

Pre-Arb

The tax AAV above is his number under the CBA’s own rulebook, not the average we work out from Cot’s total. On a contract with deferred money the two come apart on purpose — and neither is subtracted from the other.

Collect Patrick Bailey

If the signal is right, the cardboard usually finds out later. Current listings:

High-end listings ($75+) →

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Not financial advice. We take positions only after publication — never before. Misses stay on the record.

The Bureau on Patrick Bailey

The scouting press, in their own words