Patrick Bailey

The card rack

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FlagshipPatrick Bailey #GH-21 · 2026 Topps Greatest Hits · 60 recent sales 7N ▲0%

$1.45Raw$12.16PSA 9$36.04PSA 10$47.00BGS 10PSA 10 · 59 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-10-11 · paid links

$0.99Ungraded$1.00Ungraded$1.00Ungraded

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The rookiePatrick Bailey #B23-PB · 2023 Bowman's Best of Autographs · 40 recent sales 7N ▲0%

$5.16Raw$19.29PSA 9$69.45PSA 10$90.00BGS 10PSA 10 · 60 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-10-11 · paid links

$7.49Ungraded$7.49Ungraded$9.50Ungraded

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Paid link — as an eBay Partner, FVR earns from qualifying purchases. · Flagship = his most-traded card (the market’s reference); the rookie = the top card of his first card year. As of October 11, 2026 · trend is FVR's own nightly archive · prices via SportsCardsPro · what these terms mean

Scout’s note

Patrick Bailey was a first-round pick out of Greensboro in 2020, and now at 27 he is catching in Cleveland with a .206 average and a .607 OPS that make him look like a glove-only roster piece. The engine disagrees. His EV95 of 106.0 is essentially league-median — harder than 52% of the sample — but his luck gap of -0.0741 is the deepest on this board, worse than 99% of qualified hitters, meaning almost no one in baseball is getting less out of comparable contact. The last two weeks offer a glimpse of the correction: two MLB games, a .286 average, two home runs, a 1.429 OPS. That is a small window, but it is the window the engine has been pointing at, and it puts Bailey at No. 12 of 20 on the breakout board. The swing is not the problem; the outcomes have been.

Note written Oct 10 · FVR scout (GLM-5.2)

Current signals

The read: Bailey is hitting the ball harder than 52% of the 406 qualified MLB hitters in our sample (EV95 106.0; league median 105.8), while his results on contact run further below the physics than 99% of them. Loud bat, quieter stat line — the breakout shape; he ranks No. 12 of 20 on the breakout board.

OWED — his contact has outrun his line. Where he sits in the league →

EV95 (mph)

106

Luck gap (park-adj)

-0.0741

Overlay score

0.656

WAR (season · MLB calc)

1.0

Balls in play

221

Sprint (ft/s)

25.2

Age

27

A market fact, not an engine read: what a club decided about him, on the season before this one. Figures from Cot’s, as of January 17, 2025.

2026 salary

$2.51M

Tax hit

$2.51M

Service time

3 yr 136 d

Options left

3 / 3

Cash and the tax hit are two different rulebooks and are never subtracted from one another — see the payroll board for his club, Cleveland Guardians.

A second set of books

The same contract, read by MLB Spreadsheets (Ethan Hullihen), as of September 17, 2026. We keep two sources on this because one source cannot check itself.

Tax AAV

$0.81M

Guaranteed

$0.81M

Term

1 yr

His class

Pre-Arb

The tax AAV above is his number under the CBA’s own rulebook, not the average we work out from Cot’s total. On a contract with deferred money the two come apart on purpose — and neither is subtracted from the other.

The Wire

▲ On the field: José Ramírez and Patrick Bailey homer as Guardians thrash White Sox 9-5 to force winner-take-all Game 5.

X chatter, trailing 2 days · as of 2026-10-11 · newest post 2026-10-09 · summarized by Grok (xAI) · how this works →

Collect Patrick Bailey

If the signal is right, the cardboard usually finds out later. Current listings:

High-end listings ($75+) →

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Not financial advice. We take positions only after publication — never before. Misses stay on the record.

The Bureau on Patrick Bailey

The scouting press, in their own words