Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
AZ

Arizona Diamondbacks

National League · National League West · Chase Field

Umpire favor

-7.4 net runs over 134 graded gamesthe zone cost the club more than it gave, on balance.

Biggest swings: -2.0 vs PIT · +1.8 vs CIN

→ all umpire grades

The season ahead

28 games left on the schedule — what’s next, then the road to the finish. Times are in your own clock.

On deck

at San Francisco Giants (54–79)

Thu, Aug 27

Game 1 of 4· Oracle Park

Probables: Jose Cabrera vs Landen Roupp

The card will be kept live — follow along →

28 games left

Aug 271:45amat SF (54–79)
Aug 282:15amat SF (54–79)
Aug 298:05pmat SF (54–79)
Aug 292:05amat SF (54–79)
Aug 311:40amvs PHI (74–60)
Sep 11:40amvs PHI (74–60)
Sep 27:40pmvs PHI (74–60)
Sep 412:10amat HOU (66–67)

On the radar

What the market seesWhat the engine sees
PlayerPosAgeResultsSampleBoardSignal
Lars NootbaarLF28OPS .65764 GBREAKOUTEV95 108.8
Eduardo RodriguezP33ERA 2.50162.0 IP
Corbin CarrollRF26OPS .831130 GINDEXEV95 108.6
Gabriel MorenoC26OPS .846104 GINDEXEV95 105.7
Merrill KellyP37ERA 5.35134.2 IPINDEX

Left of the rule is the league’s own line on the player — his results, not our numbers, and never an input to any FVR signal. Right of it is what the engine measures.

The Card Pulse

What the collector market pays for this roster — movers first. A rising price is demand, not our read on the player. The full board →

Grade A · #2 of 30Heat 11.1%Value $51.36 avg
Jordan LawlarJordan Lawlar #HFA-14
55.3%$124Collect →
Corbin CarrollRCCorbin Carroll #401
7.8%$27.99Collect →
Merrill KellyMerrill Kelly #87
3.2%$34.51Collect →
Nolan ArenadoRCNolan Arenado #US259
2%$32.67Collect →
Max KeplerMax Kepler #US82
1.5%$35.96Collect →
Lars NootbaarRCLars Nootbaar #GQA-LN
0.4%$84.28Collect →
Nolan ArenadoNolan Arenado #SMLB-55
0.1%$36.95Collect →
Geraldo PerdomoRCGeraldo Perdomo #RA-GP
0%$117Collect →
Corbin CarrollCorbin Carroll #HA-39
0%$110Collect →
Tyler LocklearTyler Locklear #RA-TL
0%$60.00Collect →
Ryan WaldschmidtRyan Waldschmidt #BDC-18
0%$59.99Collect →
Merrill KellyRCMerrill Kelly #US240
0%$47.48Collect →
James McCannJames McCann [Gold] #448
0%$35.81Collect →
Geraldo PerdomoGeraldo Perdomo #257
0%$34.65Collect →
Ryan WaldschmidtRCRyan Waldschmidt #UR-10
0%$34.60Collect →
Lars NootbaarLars Nootbaar #58
0%$24.00Collect →
Max KeplerRCMax Kepler #138
0%$15.02Collect →
Gabriel MorenoGabriel Moreno #169
0%$8.90Collect →
James McCannRCJames McCann [Gold] #12
0%$3.48Collect →

What they pay

A market fact, not an engine read — and the club’s own row from the payroll board, computed once so the two pages cannot disagree.

vs the tax line
+$16.5Munder
MP/MW
$5.01M14 of 30 — 1 is cheapest

The five biggest commitments this season

  • Corbin Burnes$31.0M
  • Nolan Arenado$24.4M
  • Eduardo Rodriguez$21.0M
  • Merrill Kelly$18.0M
  • Zac Gallen$16.2M

Cash is what the club pays out; the tax payroll is average annual values under the CBA’s own rulebook. Two answers to one question, never subtracted from one another. Figures from Cot’s, as of .

A second set of books

The numbers above are Cot’s. These are MLB Spreadsheets’s, and they answer two questions Cot’s cannot: what this payroll is made of, and where it has moved since Opening Day. We keep both sources rather than merging them, because the only thing that catches an error in one is the other.

Where the two sources disagree

  • On cash payroll, Cot’s reads $185.5M and MLB Spreadsheets reads $191.4M $5.8M apart, with 3 days between the two sheets.
  • On tax payroll, Cot’s reads $227.5M and MLB Spreadsheets reads $234.5M $7.0M apart, with 3 days between the two sheets.

Both are reputable and neither is wrong on its own terms. A gap on sheets a month apart is one source catching up; a gap on sheets a few days apart is a real disagreement about what a club is paying, and nobody prints those. We do not average them, and every figure on this site says which source it came from.

Since Opening Day

Cash payroll
$187.2M$191.4M +$4.1M
Tax payroll
$230.4M$234.5M +$4.1M

A move is not a verdict. Adding payroll is not virtue and cutting it is not vice, so nothing here is colored — the sign is the whole fact. And a move in dollars is not a payroll in dollars: we never compare one to the other.

Where the money goes

Cash payroll

$191.4M

The bar divides the $207.5M this club pays out. It takes $16.1M back in — cash in trades — which is what brings the cash payroll to $191.4M.

Tax payroll

$234.5M

The bar divides the $248.4M this club pays out. It takes $13.9M back in — cash in trades and adjustments and credits — which is what brings the tax payroll to $234.5M.

LineCashTax
Players on the rosterSalary to the men actually playing, majors and minors.$193.2M$223.2M
Major-league salary$191.5M$220.6M
Minor-league salary$1.8M$2.6M
Players who are goneSalary buying this club no player at all.$2.1M$2.4M
Outright assignments$1.4M$1.4M
Termination pay$0.7M$1.0M
BonusesSigning bonuses charged against this season, buyouts of options declined, and bonuses already earned.$12.1M$2.7M
Signing bonuses (prorated)$9.3M
Performance and award bonuses$2.7M$2.7M
Option buyouts$0.1M
Cash in tradesMoney sent out with a player traded away, or taken in — a negative figure — to absorb someone else's contract.−$16.1M−$12.6M
League chargesThe same for all thirty clubs — no front office decided to spend this.$20.1M
Benefits$18.4M
Pre-arb bonus pool$1.7M
Adjustments and creditsBookkeeping between the club and the league office.−$1.3M
Total$191.4M$234.5M

An em dash in one column and a figure in the other is not a missing number — it is the two rulebooks sorting the same money differently. A prorated signing bonus is in the cash figure and already inside the average annual value the tax is assessed on; league charges are the reverse. That is why the two totals differ, and why they are never subtracted from one another.

Composition and Opening Day figures from Ethan Hullihen (@EthanHullihen, MLBSpreadsheets), from a workbook whose oldest relevant sheet is dated . The workbook carries a different date on every tab, so this is the oldest of the ones we read rather than the file’s own. Every line above was checked to sum to the club’s stated total before it was printed.

Down on the farm

Organization prospects on our pre-consensus boards.

What the market seesWhat the engine sees
PlayerPosAgeClubResultsSampleBoardSignal
Jordan LawlarCF24Arizona DiamondbacksOPS .83020 G · MLBINDEX
Tyler Locklear1B25Reno AcesOPS .86658 GINDEXEV95 108.02

Left of the rule is the league’s own line on the player — his results, not our numbers, and never an input to any FVR signal. Right of it is what the engine measures.

On the record

  • C0012 Eduardo Rodriguez · miss

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