Nolan Arenado

On the record · career milestones this season

2,000 career hits — Mon, Jul 20 · night game vs. Athletics The scorecard → · The write-up →

1,200 career RBI — Wed, Apr 29 · night game vs. Milwaukee Brewers The scorecard → · The write-up →

1,000 career runs scored — Tue, Apr 21 · night game vs. Chicago White Sox The scorecard → · The write-up →

The card rack

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FlagshipNolan Arenado #SMLB-55 · 2026 Topps Series 2 Stars Of MLB · 94 recent sales 7N ▲0%

$1.37Raw$12.16PSA 9$36.24PSA 10$47.00BGS 10PSA 10 · 60 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-10-14 · paid links

$0.70Ungraded$0.99Ungraded$0.99Ungraded

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The rookieNolan Arenado #US259 · 2013 Topps Update · 674 recent sales 7N ▼13.2%

$4.41Raw$17.86PSA 9$26.05PSA 10$84.15BGS 10PSA 10 · 60 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-10-14 · paid links

$4.15Ungraded$5.00Ungraded$6.00Ungraded

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Paid link — as an eBay Partner, FVR earns from qualifying purchases. · Flagship = his most-traded card (the market’s reference); the rookie = the top card of his first card year. As of October 14, 2026 · trend is FVR's own nightly archive · prices via SportsCardsPro · what these terms mean

Scout’s note

Nolan Arenado is 35, in his 14th major-league season, with 383 career home runs and 1,270 RBI — a resume that needs no introduction. The engine sees a player whose results still outpace the barrel: an EV95 of 103.8 sits two miles per hour below the league median, yet he has 30 home runs and an .806 OPS for Arizona this year. The luck gap of 0.0615 ranks him 10th on the fade board, ahead of more than 98 percent of the 406 hitters we track. Arenado's hands and instincts have always done work the exit velocity cannot measure, and his sprint speed has settled to 25.1. But at this age, with this much contact data — 414 balls in play — the gap between what he hits and what he shows is worth watching, because the board says it tends to close.

Note written Oct 11 · FVR scout (GLM-5.2)

Current signals

The read: Arenado's results are outrunning his contact by more than 98% of the 406 qualified MLB hitters we track — an EV95 of 103.8 (league median 105.8) doesn't usually buy this stat line. Gaps like his tend to close from above; No. 10 of 15 on the fade board.

PAID — his line has outrun his contact. Where he sits in the league →

EV95 (mph)

103.8

Luck gap (park-adj)

0.0615

Overlay score

-0.5558

WAR (season · MLB calc)

3.5

Balls in play

414

Sprint (ft/s)

25.1

Age

35

A market fact, not an engine read: what a club decided about him, on the season before this one. Figures from Cot’s, as of September 18, 2026.

2026 salary

$15.00M

Tax hit

$21.00M

Service time

13 yr 155 d

Guaranteed

$260M

Regime read from his service time, not from the sheet — it does not project him past this season. Super Two eligibility is the top 22% of a class and can move this line in a way service time alone cannot see.

Cash and the tax hit are two different rulebooks and are never subtracted from one another — see the payroll board for his club, Arizona Diamondbacks.

A second set of books

The same contract, read by MLB Spreadsheets (Ethan Hullihen), as of October 12, 2026. We keep two sources on this because one source cannot check itself.

Tax AAV

$25.0M

Guaranteed

$275.0M

Term

9 yrs

His class

Extension

The tax AAV above is his number under the CBA’s own rulebook, not the average we work out from Cot’s total. On a contract with deferred money the two come apart on purpose — and neither is subtracted from the other.

Collect Nolan Arenado

If the signal is right, the cardboard usually finds out later. Current listings:

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Not financial advice. We take positions only after publication — never before. Misses stay on the record.

The Bureau on Nolan Arenado

The scouting press, in their own words