Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
WSH

Washington Nationals

National League · National League East · Nationals Park

Umpire favor

-2.3 net runs over 135 graded gamesthe zone cost the club more than it gave, on balance.

Biggest swings: -1.8 vs CIN · -1.8 vs MIA

→ all umpire grades

The season ahead

27 games left on the schedule — what’s next, then the road to the finish. Times are in your own clock.

On deck

vs Colorado Rockies (52–81)

Thu, Aug 27

Game 4 of 4· Nationals Park

Probables: Jake Irvin vs Gabriel Hughes

The card will be kept live — follow along →

27 games left

Aug 275:05pmvs COL (52–81)
Aug 2810:45pmvs MIA (68–66)
Aug 298:05pmvs MIA (68–66)
Aug 304:15pmvs MIA (68–66)Peacock/NBCSN
Aug 3110:45pmvs MIA (68–66)FS1
Sep 110:45pmvs ATL (78–55)
Sep 25:05pmvs ATL (78–55)
Sep 42:10amat LAD (80–53)

On the radar

What the market seesWhat the engine sees
PlayerPosAgeResultsSampleBoardSignal
James WoodRF23OPS .928114 GBREAKOUTEV95 112.07
Brady House3B23OPS .68070 GBREAKOUTEV95 108.755
Nasim Nuñez2B26OPS .547124 GINDEXEV95 101.505
CJ AbramsSS25OPS .870127 GINDEXEV95 106.5
Cade CavalliP28ERA 3.21148.2 IPINDEX

Left of the rule is the league’s own line on the player — his results, not our numbers, and never an input to any FVR signal. Right of it is what the engine measures.

The Card Pulse

What the collector market pays for this roster — movers first. A rising price is demand, not our read on the player. The full board →

Grade B · #6 of 30Heat 4.7%Value $114 avg
Abimelec OrtizAbimelec Ortiz #CPA-AO
9.9%$50.00Collect →
Brady HouseRCBrady House #RA-BHO
5.9%$76.38Collect →
Nasim NuñezRCNasim Nunez #US267
1.6%$33.84Collect →
James WoodRCJames Wood #29
0.9%$82.29Collect →
Nasim NuñezNasim Nunez [Gold] #645
0.6%$39.60Collect →
Eli WillitsRCEli Willits #BSPA-EW
0.5%$489Collect →
Brady HouseBrady House #170
0.2%$38.09Collect →
Eli WillitsEli Willits #CPA-EW
0%$598Collect →
James WoodJames Wood [Refractor] #132
0%$110Collect →
CJ AbramsCJ Abrams [Gold] #152
0%$40.99Collect →
Yohandy MoralesRCYohandy Morales #BCP-52
0%$36.63Collect →
CJ AbramsRCCJ Abrams #USC3
0%$25.46Collect →
Yohandy MoralesYohandy Morales [Holo Ticket Signature] #161
0%$18.00Collect →
Cade CavalliRCCade Cavalli #HA-30
flat$79.92Collect →
Cade CavalliCade Cavalli #320
flat$18.00Collect →

What they pay

A market fact, not an engine read — and the club’s own row from the payroll board, computed once so the two pages cannot disagree.

vs the tax line
+$123.3Munder
MP/MW
$2.38M6 of 30 — 1 is cheapest

PROPOSED Below the floor the owners proposed on 2026-07-21 — this club would have to spend up. A proposal out of a negotiation that has not happened, not a rule. The line in force is the $244M tax threshold above.

The five biggest commitments this season

  • Keibert Ruiz$5.4M
  • CJ Abrams$4.2M
  • Jake Irvin$2.8M
  • Josiah Gray$1.4M
  • Richard Lovelady$0.9M

Cash is what the club pays out; the tax payroll is average annual values under the CBA’s own rulebook. Two answers to one question, never subtracted from one another. Figures from Cot’s, as of .

A second set of books

The numbers above are Cot’s. These are MLB Spreadsheets’s, and they answer two questions Cot’s cannot: what this payroll is made of, and where it has moved since Opening Day. We keep both sources rather than merging them, because the only thing that catches an error in one is the other.

Where the two sources disagree

  • On cash payroll, Cot’s reads $98.9M and MLB Spreadsheets reads $89.3M $9.6M apart, with 5 days between the two sheets.
  • On tax payroll, Cot’s reads $120.7M and MLB Spreadsheets reads $119.4M $1.4M apart, with 5 days between the two sheets.

Both are reputable and neither is wrong on its own terms. A gap on sheets a month apart is one source catching up; a gap on sheets a few days apart is a real disagreement about what a club is paying, and nobody prints those. We do not average them, and every figure on this site says which source it came from.

Since Opening Day

Cash payroll
$89.1M$89.3M +$0.2M
Tax payroll
$119.1M$119.4M +$0.2M

A move is not a verdict. Adding payroll is not virtue and cutting it is not vice, so nothing here is colored — the sign is the whole fact. And a move in dollars is not a payroll in dollars: we never compare one to the other.

Where the money goes

Cash payroll

$89.3M

Tax payroll

$119.4M

LineCashTax
Players on the rosterSalary to the men actually playing, majors and minors.$55.8M$60.0M
Major-league salary$53.7M$57.9M
Minor-league salary$2.1M$2.1M
Players who are goneSalary buying this club no player at all.$32.2M$38.4M
Termination pay$30.1M$36.4M
Outright assignments$2.0M$1.9M
BonusesSigning bonuses charged against this season, buyouts of options declined, and bonuses already earned.$1.3M$0.9M
Performance and award bonuses$0.9M$0.9M
Signing bonuses (prorated)$0.4M
Cash in tradesMoney sent out with a player traded away, or taken in — a negative figure — to absorb someone else's contract.$0.1M$0.1M
League chargesThe same for all thirty clubs — no front office decided to spend this.$20.1M
Benefits$18.4M
Pre-arb bonus pool$1.7M
Total$89.3M$119.4M

An em dash in one column and a figure in the other is not a missing number — it is the two rulebooks sorting the same money differently. A prorated signing bonus is in the cash figure and already inside the average annual value the tax is assessed on; league charges are the reverse. That is why the two totals differ, and why they are never subtracted from one another.

Composition and Opening Day figures from Ethan Hullihen (@EthanHullihen, MLBSpreadsheets), from a workbook whose oldest relevant sheet is dated . The workbook carries a different date on every tab, so this is the oldest of the ones we read rather than the file’s own. Every line above was checked to sum to the club’s stated total before it was printed.

Down on the farm

Organization prospects on our pre-consensus boards.

What the market seesWhat the engine sees
PlayerPosAgeClubResultsSampleBoardSignal
Abimelec Ortiz1B24Washington NationalsOPS .84585 GPRE-CONSENSUSEV95 109.5
Yohandy Morales1B24Rochester Red WingsOPS .886100 GPRE-CONSENSUSEV95 108.43
Eli WillitsSS18Wilmington Blue RocksOPS .80855 G · A+INDEX

Left of the rule is the league’s own line on the player — his results, not our numbers, and never an input to any FVR signal. Right of it is what the engine measures.

On the record

  • C0001 James Wood · open

Follow the Nationals

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Collect the Nationals

The organization’s 2026 cardboard, from commons to the high end:

2026 Washington Nationals cards on eBay →

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