Jarren Duran

On the record · career milestone this season

100 career stolen bases — Tue, May 12 · night game vs. Philadelphia Phillies The scorecard → · The write-up →

The card rack

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FlagshipJarren Duran #HA-24 · 2025 Topps Home Field Advantage · 188 recent sales 7N ▲0%

$31.00Raw$76.60PSA 9$250PSA 10$325BGS 10PSA 10 · 57 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-10-16 · paid links

$30.00Ungraded$32.00Ungraded$34.99Ungraded

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The rookieJarren Duran [Sapphire] #BCP-170 · 2021 Bowman Chrome Prospects · 0 recent sales

—Raw—PSA 9—PSA 10—BGS 10PSA 10 · 57 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-10-16 · paid links

$1.25Ungraded$1.28Ungraded$1.30Ungraded

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Paid link — as an eBay Partner, FVR earns from qualifying purchases. · Flagship = his most-traded card (the market’s reference); the rookie = the top card of his first card year. As of October 16, 2026 · trend is FVR's own nightly archive · prices via SportsCardsPro · what these terms mean

Scout’s note

Jarren Duran can run — a 29.0 sprint speed — and the engine says he can hit, too, harder than 91 percent of qualified MLB hitters at an EV95 of 109.39. What the results have not done is keep pace: his contact outcomes fall below the physics more than 93 percent of the time, a luck gap of -0.0509 that puts him at No. 14 on the breakout board. A seventh-round pick from Corona, California, in 2018, he debuted in 2021 and has played 661 MLB games with 112 steals and a .254 career average. This season in Boston the average has dropped to .207 across 151 games, though 20 home runs and 69 RBI suggest the power has held. At 30, with a 0.5 WAR that undersells the contact profile, the question is whether the speed and the barrel can finally meet in the same season.

Note written Oct 15 · FVR scout (GLM-5.2)

Current signals

The read: Duran is hitting the ball harder than 91% of the 406 qualified MLB hitters in our sample (EV95 109.4; league median 105.8), while his results on contact run further below the physics than 93% of them. Loud bat, quieter stat line — the breakout shape; he ranks No. 14 of 20 on the breakout board.

OWED — his contact has outrun his line. Where he sits in the league →

EV95 (mph)

109.39

Luck gap (park-adj)

-0.0509

Overlay score

0.6366

WAR (season · MLB calc)

0.5

Balls in play

392

Sprint (ft/s)

29.0

Age

30

A market fact, not an engine read: what a club decided about him, on the season before this one. Figures from Cot’s, as of February 1, 2026.

2026 salary

$10.85M

Tax hit

$10.85M

Service time

4 yr 155 d

Options left

2 / 3

Cash and the tax hit are two different rulebooks and are never subtracted from one another — see the payroll board for his club, Boston Red Sox.

A second set of books

The same contract, read by MLB Spreadsheets (Ethan Hullihen), as of October 12, 2026. We keep two sources on this because one source cannot check itself.

Tax AAV

$7.70M

Guaranteed

$7.70M

Term

1 yr

His class

Arb

The tax AAV above is his number under the CBA’s own rulebook, not the average we work out from Cot’s total. On a contract with deferred money the two come apart on purpose — and neither is subtracted from the other.

Collect Jarren Duran

If the signal is right, the cardboard usually finds out later. Current listings:

High-end listings ($75+) →

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Not financial advice. We take positions only after publication — never before. Misses stay on the record.

The Bureau on Jarren Duran

The scouting press, in their own words