Jarren Duran

On the record · career milestone this season

100 career stolen bases — Tue, May 12 · night game vs. Philadelphia Phillies The scorecard → · The write-up →

The card rack

FlagshipJarren Duran #HA-24 · 2025 Topps Home Field Advantage · 210 recent sales 7N ▲1.8%

$31.76Raw$78.81PSA 9$217PSA 10$282BGS 10PSA 10 · 44 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-09-01 · paid links

$35.00Ungraded$35.00Ungraded$36.00Ungraded

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The rookieJarren Duran [Sapphire] #BCP-170 · 2021 Bowman Chrome Prospects · 0 recent sales

—Raw—PSA 9—PSA 10—BGS 10PSA 10 · 44 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-09-01 · paid links

$1.25Ungraded$1.25Ungraded$1.30Ungraded

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Paid link — as an eBay Partner, FVR earns from qualifying purchases. · Flagship = his most-traded card (the market’s reference); the rookie = the top card of his first card year. As of September 1, 2026 · trend is FVR's own nightly archive · prices via SportsCardsPro · what these terms mean

Scout’s note

Duran's EV95 of 109.5 clears 91% of qualified MLB hitters, and his luck gap of -0.0502 means his results on contact sit below the physics more than 91% of the sample — a .207 average and .626 OPS that don't match what's coming off the bat. He's 29, a seventh-round pick out of Corona, California, now in his fifth season with Boston, and the engine ranks him No. 16 on the breakout board. His last 11 MLB games produced a .770 OPS with two homers — not a surge, but a tick in the right direction after a season where the hard contact hasn't converted. The sprint speed is 29.0 and he's struck out 148 times, so the whiffs are part of the drag. But the bat speed isn't the problem; the problem is everything between contact and outcome.

Note written Aug 31 · FVR scout (GLM-5.2)

Current signals

The read: Duran is hitting the ball harder than 92% of the 379 qualified MLB hitters in our sample (EV95 109.7; league median 105.7), while his results on contact run further below the physics than 92% of them. Loud bat, quieter stat line — the breakout shape; he ranks No. 14 of 20 on the breakout board.

OWED — his contact has outrun his line. Where he sits in the league →

EV95 (mph)

109.66

Luck gap (park-adj)

-0.0513

Overlay score

0.6523

WAR (season · MLB calc)

0.3

Balls in play

345

Sprint (ft/s)

29.0

Age

29

A market fact, not an engine read: what a club decided about him, on the season before this one. Figures from Cot’s, as of August 14, 2026.

2026 salary

$7.70M

Tax hit

$7.70M

Service time

3 yr 155 d

Options left

2 / 3

Cash and the tax hit are two different rulebooks and are never subtracted from one another — see the payroll board for his club, Boston Red Sox.

A second set of books

The same contract, read by MLB Spreadsheets (Ethan Hullihen), as of August 20, 2026. We keep two sources on this because one source cannot check itself.

Tax AAV

$7.70M

Guaranteed

$7.70M

Term

1 yr

His class

Arb

The tax AAV above is his number under the CBA’s own rulebook, not the average we work out from Cot’s total. On a contract with deferred money the two come apart on purpose — and neither is subtracted from the other.

Collect Jarren Duran

If the signal is right, the cardboard usually finds out later. Current listings:

High-end listings ($75+) →

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Not financial advice. We take positions only after publication — never before. Misses stay on the record.

The Bureau on Jarren Duran

The scouting press, in their own words