Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
ATL

Atlanta Braves

National League · National League East · Truist Park

Umpire favor

-8.9 net runs over 133 graded gamesthe zone cost the club more than it gave, on balance.

Biggest swings: -1.6 vs NYM · -1.6 vs TEX

→ all umpire grades

The season ahead

29 games left on the schedule — what’s next, then the road to the finish. Times are in your own clock.

On deck

The 78-55 Braves host the 80-53 Dodgers at Truist Park for Game 3 of 3. With both clubs above .500 and the game on FS1, Atlanta fans get a national TV home game against a fellow first-place team.

vs Los Angeles Dodgers (80–53)

Thu, Aug 27

Game 3 of 3· Truist Park📺 FS1

Probables: Chris Sale vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto

The card will be kept live — follow along →

National TV: FS1Both clubs above .500First place: Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers

29 games left

Aug 2711:15pmvs LAD (80–53)FS1
Aug 2811:15pmvs COL (52–81)
Aug 298:10pmvs COL (52–81)
Aug 305:35pmvs COL (52–81)
Aug 3110:05pmvs SF (54–79)
Sep 110:45pmat WSH (62–73)
Sep 25:05pmat WSH (62–73)
Sep 410:40pmat PHI (74–60)

On the radar

What the market seesWhat the engine sees
PlayerPosAgeResultsSampleBoardSignal
Martín PérezP35ERA 3.12115.1 IP
Matt Olson1B32OPS .875133 GINDEXEV95 109.5
Chris SaleP37ERA 2.20135.0 IPINDEX
Raisel IglesiasP36ERA 2.9449.0 IPINDEX
Michael Harris IICF25OPS .807127 GINDEXEV95 109.5
Drake BaldwinC25OPS .808110 GINDEXEV95 108.065
Ozzie Albies2B29OPS .728133 GINDEXEV95 103.02
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF28OPS .73281 GINDEXEV95 108.6

Left of the rule is the league’s own line on the player — his results, not our numbers, and never an input to any FVR signal. Right of it is what the engine measures.

The Card Pulse

What the collector market pays for this roster — movers first. A rising price is demand, not our read on the player. The full board →

Grade B · #10 of 30Heat 0.6%Value $41.28 avg
Michael Harris IIRCMichael Harris II #493
19.5%$36.00Collect →
Ozzie AlbiesRCOzzie Albies #72
6.6%$22.38Collect →
Ronald Acuña Jr.RCRonald Acuna Jr. #193
3%$45.00Collect →
Drake BaldwinDrake Baldwin #96
1.8%$60.94Collect →
Ozzie AlbiesOzzie Albies [Gold] #568
1.6%$43.91Collect →
Michael Harris IIMichael Harris II #79
1.4%$28.77Collect →
Chris SaleRCChris Sale #65
1.1%$88.59Collect →
Chris SaleChris Sale [Gold] #427
0.1%$41.58Collect →
Martín PérezMartin Perez [Gold] #US75
0.1%$36.52Collect →
Matt OlsonRCMatt Olson #98
0%$64.00Collect →
Ronald Acuña Jr.Ronald Acuña Jr. [40/70] #927
0%$45.00Collect →
Raisel IglesiasRaisel Iglesias [Gold] #396
0%$39.29Collect →
Matt OlsonMatt Olson / Shohei Ohtani #307
0%$38.74Collect →
Victor MederosVictor Mederos #SCBA-VM
0%$36.78Collect →
Raisel IglesiasRCRaisel Iglesias #427
0%$32.15Collect →

What they pay

A market fact, not an engine read — and the club’s own row from the payroll board, computed once so the two pages cannot disagree.

vs the tax line
−$13.8Mover
MP/MW
$5.12M15 of 30 — 1 is cheapest

PROPOSED Above the cap the owners proposed on 2026-07-21. A proposal out of a negotiation that has not happened, not a rule. The line in force is the $244M tax threshold above.

The five biggest commitments this season

  • Matt Olson$22.0M
  • Austin Riley$22.0M
  • Ha-Seong Kim$20.0M
  • Spencer Strider$20.0M
  • Chris Sale$18.0M

Cash is what the club pays out; the tax payroll is average annual values under the CBA’s own rulebook. Two answers to one question, never subtracted from one another. Figures from Cot’s, as of .

A second set of books

The numbers above are Cot’s. These are MLB Spreadsheets’s, and they answer two questions Cot’s cannot: what this payroll is made of, and where it has moved since Opening Day. We keep both sources rather than merging them, because the only thing that catches an error in one is the other.

Where the two sources disagree

  • On cash payroll, Cot’s reads $260.5M and MLB Spreadsheets reads $262.7M $2.1M apart, with 2 days between the two sheets.
  • On tax payroll, Cot’s reads $257.8M and MLB Spreadsheets reads $255.1M $2.7M apart, with 2 days between the two sheets.

Both are reputable and neither is wrong on its own terms. A gap on sheets a month apart is one source catching up; a gap on sheets a few days apart is a real disagreement about what a club is paying, and nobody prints those. We do not average them, and every figure on this site says which source it came from.

Since Opening Day

Cash payroll
$253.9M$262.7M +$8.8M
Tax payroll
$246.3M$255.1M +$8.8M

A move is not a verdict. Adding payroll is not virtue and cutting it is not vice, so nothing here is colored — the sign is the whole fact. And a move in dollars is not a payroll in dollars: we never compare one to the other.

Where the money goes

Cash payroll

$262.7M

Tax payroll

$255.1M

The bar divides the $262.1M this club pays out. It takes $7.0M back in — adjustments and credits — which is what brings the tax payroll to $255.1M.

LineCashTax
Players on the rosterSalary to the men actually playing, majors and minors.$248.6M$233.4M
Major-league salary$246.8M$231.7M
Minor-league salary$1.7M$1.7M
Players who are goneSalary buying this club no player at all.$10.6M$8.5M
Termination pay$7.3M$5.2M
Outright assignments$3.3M$3.3M
BonusesSigning bonuses charged against this season, buyouts of options declined, and bonuses already earned.$3.5M
Cash in tradesMoney sent out with a player traded away, or taken in — a negative figure — to absorb someone else's contract.$0.1M
League chargesThe same for all thirty clubs — no front office decided to spend this.$20.1M
Benefits$18.4M
Pre-arb bonus pool$1.7M
Adjustments and creditsBookkeeping between the club and the league office.−$7.0M
Credits−$4.0M
AAV adjustments−$3.0M
Total$262.7M$255.1M

An em dash in one column and a figure in the other is not a missing number — it is the two rulebooks sorting the same money differently. A prorated signing bonus is in the cash figure and already inside the average annual value the tax is assessed on; league charges are the reverse. That is why the two totals differ, and why they are never subtracted from one another.

Composition and Opening Day figures from Ethan Hullihen (@EthanHullihen, MLBSpreadsheets), from a workbook whose oldest relevant sheet is dated . The workbook carries a different date on every tab, so this is the oldest of the ones we read rather than the file’s own. Every line above was checked to sum to the club’s stated total before it was printed.

Down on the farm

Organization prospects on our pre-consensus boards.

What the market seesWhat the engine sees
PlayerPosAgeClubResultsSampleBoardSignal
Victor MederosP25Atlanta BravesERA 5.4043.1 IPINDEXStuff 0.453

Left of the rule is the league’s own line on the player — his results, not our numbers, and never an input to any FVR signal. Right of it is what the engine measures.

On the record

  • C0013 Martín Pérez · open

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