Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
LAD

Los Angeles Dodgers

National League · National League West · UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium

Umpire favor

-2.4 net runs over 133 graded gamesthe zone cost the club more than it gave, on balance.

Biggest swings: +1.8 vs CLE · +1.8 vs COL

→ all umpire grades

The season ahead

29 games left on the schedule — what’s next, then the road to the finish. Times are in your own clock.

On deck

The Dodgers face the Atlanta Braves on the road at Truist Park for Game 3 of 3 on FS1. With both clubs above .500 and in first place, the stakes are real for Los Angeles.

at Atlanta Braves (78–55)

Thu, Aug 27

Game 3 of 3· Truist Park📺 FS1

Probables: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Chris Sale

The card will be kept live — follow along →

National TV: FS1Both clubs above .500First place: Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves

29 games left

Aug 2711:15pmat ATL (78–55)FS1
Aug 2810:40pmat DET (62–71)
Aug 295:10pmat DET (62–71)
Aug 305:40pmat DET (62–71)
Sep 12:10amvs STL (66–68)
Sep 22:10amvs STL (66–68)
Sep 32:10amvs STL (66–68)
Sep 42:10amvs WSH (62–73)

On the radar

What the market seesWhat the engine sees
PlayerPosAgeResultsSampleBoardSignal
Will SmithC31OPS .72052 GBREAKOUTEV95 106.375
Alex CallLF31OPS .70170 GFADEEV95 99.65
Shohei OhtaniDH32OPS .934127 GINDEXEV95 111.285
Max Muncy3B36OPS .849123 GINDEXEV95 107.25
Andy PagesCF25OPS .796128 GINDEXEV95 106.355
Yoshinobu YamamotoP28ERA 2.61151.2 IPINDEX
Freddie Freeman1B36OPS .833129 GINDEXEV95 106.02
Justin WrobleskiP26ERA 3.56126.1 IPINDEX

Left of the rule is the league’s own line on the player — his results, not our numbers, and never an input to any FVR signal. Right of it is what the engine measures.

The Card Pulse

What the collector market pays for this roster — movers first. A rising price is demand, not our read on the player. The full board →

Grade F · #25 of 30Heat 2.5%Value $95.84 avg
Tarik SkubalTarik Skubal #BCP-108
18.9%$83.00Collect →
Justin WrobleskiJustin Wrobleski #CPA-JWR
14.5%$179Collect →
Mike SirotaMike Sirota #BDC-32
6.4%$40.37Collect →
Freddie FreemanFreddie Freeman #BST-2
5%$36.28Collect →
Shohei OhtaniShohei Ohtani [Mojo] #52
3.4%$64.36Collect →
Hunter FeducciaRCHunter Feduccia #RA-HF
3.1%$48.56Collect →
Freddie FreemanRCFreddie Freeman #145
2.7%$182Collect →
Tarik SkubalRCTarik Skubal #92
2.5%$78.00Collect →
Andy PagesRCAndy Pages #USC186
2.5%$34.27Collect →
Josue De PaulaRCJosue De Paula #BCP-172
2.3%$59.00Collect →
Mike SirotaRCMike Sirota #CPA-MS
1.4%$233Collect →
Mookie BettsMookie Betts #BCP109
0.7%$108Collect →
Shohei OhtaniRCShohei Ohtani #49
0.3%$728Collect →
Enrique HernándezEnrique Hernandez [Topps Refractor] #237
0.3%$52.79Collect →
Alex CallAlex Call #577
0.1%$37.43Collect →
Ryan WardRyan Ward [Orange Foil] #98
0%$384Collect →
Enrique HernándezRCEnrique Hernandez #US117
0%$225Collect →
Josue De PaulaJosue De Paula #FD-3
0%$166Collect →
Andy PagesAndy Pages #17
0%$130Collect →
Will SmithWill Smith #WS-6
0%$53.40Collect →
Yoshinobu YamamotoYoshinobu Yamamoto #36
0%$51.04Collect →
Max MuncyMax Muncy #GH-24
0%$37.22Collect →
Alex CallRCAlex Call #FA-AC
0%$22.02Collect →
Hunter FeducciaHunter Feduccia #68
0%$15.50Collect →

What they pay

A market fact, not an engine read — and the club’s own row from the payroll board, computed once so the two pages cannot disagree.

vs the tax line
−$186.5Mover
MP/MW
$6.22M23 of 30 — 1 is cheapest

PROPOSED Above the cap the owners proposed on 2026-07-21. A proposal out of a negotiation that has not happened, not a rule. The line in force is the $244M tax threshold above.

The five biggest commitments this season

  • Kyle Tucker$33.0M
  • Tyler Glasnow$32.5M
  • Shohei Ohtani$28.2M
  • Blake Snell$27.9M
  • Mookie Betts$25.2M

Cash is what the club pays out; the tax payroll is average annual values under the CBA’s own rulebook. Two answers to one question, never subtracted from one another. Figures from Cot’s, as of .

A second set of books

The numbers above are Cot’s. These are MLB Spreadsheets’s, and they answer two questions Cot’s cannot: what this payroll is made of, and where it has moved since Opening Day. We keep both sources rather than merging them, because the only thing that catches an error in one is the other.

Where the two sources disagree

  • On tax payroll, Cot’s reads $430.5M and MLB Spreadsheets reads $428.2M $2.3M apart, with 1 day between the two sheets.

Both are reputable and neither is wrong on its own terms. A gap on sheets a month apart is one source catching up; a gap on sheets a few days apart is a real disagreement about what a club is paying, and nobody prints those. We do not average them, and every figure on this site says which source it came from.

Since Opening Day

Cash payroll
$323.3M$338.3M +$14.9M
Tax payroll
$413.3M$428.2M +$14.9M

A move is not a verdict. Adding payroll is not virtue and cutting it is not vice, so nothing here is colored — the sign is the whole fact. And a move in dollars is not a payroll in dollars: we never compare one to the other.

Where the money goes

Cash payroll

$338.3M

The bar divides the $342.5M this club pays out. It takes $4.2M back in — cash in trades — which is what brings the cash payroll to $338.3M.

Tax payroll

$428.2M

The bar divides the $431.2M this club pays out. It takes $3.0M back in — cash in trades and adjustments and credits — which is what brings the tax payroll to $428.2M.

LineCashTax
Players on the rosterSalary to the men actually playing, majors and minors.$256.4M$409.5M
Major-league salary$250.9M$403.6M
Minor-league salary$5.5M$5.8M
Players who are goneSalary buying this club no player at all.$1.5M$1.5M
Outright assignments$1.2M$1.2M
Termination pay$0.3M$0.3M
BonusesSigning bonuses charged against this season, buyouts of options declined, and bonuses already earned.$84.6M$0.2M
Signing bonuses (prorated)$80.4M
Option buyouts$4.0M
Performance and award bonuses$0.2M$0.2M
Cash in tradesMoney sent out with a player traded away, or taken in — a negative figure — to absorb someone else's contract.−$4.2M−$3.0M
League chargesThe same for all thirty clubs — no front office decided to spend this.$20.1M
Benefits$18.4M
Pre-arb bonus pool$1.7M
Adjustments and creditsBookkeeping between the club and the league office.−$0.1M
Total$338.3M$428.2M

An em dash in one column and a figure in the other is not a missing number — it is the two rulebooks sorting the same money differently. A prorated signing bonus is in the cash figure and already inside the average annual value the tax is assessed on; league charges are the reverse. That is why the two totals differ, and why they are never subtracted from one another.

Composition and Opening Day figures from Ethan Hullihen (@EthanHullihen, MLBSpreadsheets), from a workbook whose oldest relevant sheet is dated . The workbook carries a different date on every tab, so this is the oldest of the ones we read rather than the file’s own. Every line above was checked to sum to the club’s stated total before it was printed.

Down on the farm

Organization prospects on our pre-consensus boards.

What the market seesWhat the engine sees
PlayerPosAgeClubResultsSampleBoardSignal
Ryan WardLF28Oklahoma City CometsOPS .81889 GINDEXEV95 105.44
Josue De PaulaLF21Tulsa DrillersOPS .966113 G · AAINDEX
Mike SirotaCF23Tulsa DrillersOPS .95466 G · AAINDEX

Left of the rule is the league’s own line on the player — his results, not our numbers, and never an input to any FVR signal. Right of it is what the engine measures.

On the record

  • C0009 Will Smith · open

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