Shohei Ohtani

On the record · career milestone this season

300 career home runs — Tue, Jul 7 · night game vs. Colorado Rockies The scorecard → · The write-up →

The Line of the Day

4-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI — Mon, Aug 17 · night game vs. Colorado Rockies The scorecard →

The card rack

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FlagshipShohei Ohtani [Mojo] #52 · 2026 Bowman · 277 recent sales 7N ▲1.8%

$7.49Raw$21.70PSA 9$63.53PSA 10$83.00BGS 10PSA 10 · 57 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-10-11 · paid links

$7.00Ungraded$7.99Ungraded$7.99Ungraded

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The rookieShohei Ohtani #49 · 2018 Bowman · 3765 recent sales 7N ▼6.7%

$91.00Raw$145PSA 9$617PSA 10$1,274BGS 10PSA 10 · 57 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-10-11 · paid links

$95.00Ungraded$100Ungraded$115Ungraded

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Paid link — as an eBay Partner, FVR earns from qualifying purchases. · Flagship = his most-traded card (the market’s reference); the rookie = the top card of his first card year. As of October 11, 2026 · trend is FVR's own nightly archive · prices via SportsCardsPro · what these terms mean

Scout’s note

The engine says Ohtani's bat is louder than 97% of qualified hitters — an EV95 of 111.16 puts his hardest contact in a tier almost nobody reaches — yet his results on that contact fall below what the physics predicts more than 86% of the time. That -0.0364 luck gap is narrow but real: a .275 average and .889 OPS with thirty home runs and eighty-one RBIs that should probably read higher. He came out of Oshu, Japan, in 2018, and at thirty-two the body has produced 310 career homers and 176 steals while generating exit speeds that belong to a shorter list. He sits No. 17 of 20 on our breakout board. Two MLB games in the last fourteen days — .250 with two strikeouts — won't move the read either way. The barrel is still doing more than the box score admits.

Note written Oct 10 · FVR scout (GLM-5.2)

Current signals

The read: Ohtani is hitting the ball harder than 97% of the 406 qualified MLB hitters in our sample (EV95 111.2; league median 105.8), while his results on contact run further below the physics than 86% of them. Loud bat, quieter stat line — the breakout shape; he ranks No. 17 of 20 on the breakout board.

OWED — his contact has outrun his line. Where he sits in the league →

EV95 (mph)

111.16

Luck gap (park-adj)

-0.0364

Overlay score

0.6064

WAR (season · MLB calc)

3.7

Balls in play

369

Sprint (ft/s)

27.7

Age

32

A market fact, not an engine read: what a club decided about him, on the season before this one. Figures from Cot’s.

2026 salary

$28.22M

Tax hit

$46.08M

Service time

9 yr 0 d

Guaranteed

$700M

Cash and the tax hit are two different rulebooks and are never subtracted from one another — see the payroll board for his club, Los Angeles Dodgers.

A second set of books

The same contract, read by MLB Spreadsheets (Ethan Hullihen), as of September 17, 2026. We keep two sources on this because one source cannot check itself.

Tax AAV

$46.1M

Guaranteed

$700.0M

Term

10 yrs

His class

FA

The tax AAV above is his number under the CBA’s own rulebook, not the average we work out from Cot’s total. On a contract with deferred money the two come apart on purpose — and neither is subtracted from the other.

The Wire

▬ Quiet week on X.

X chatter, trailing 2 days · as of 2026-10-11 · newest post 2026-10-10 · summarized by Grok (xAI) · how this works →

Collect Shohei Ohtani

If the signal is right, the cardboard usually finds out later. Current listings:

High-end listings ($75+) →

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Not financial advice. We take positions only after publication — never before. Misses stay on the record.

The Bureau on Shohei Ohtani

The scouting press, in their own words