Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
ATH

Athletics

American League · American League West · Sutter Health Park

Umpire favor

+8.0 net runs over 134 graded gamesthe zone was kind to the club on balance.

Biggest swings: +1.9 vs MIL · -1.7 vs HOU

→ all umpire grades

The season ahead

28 games left on the schedule — what’s next, then the road to the finish. Times are in your own clock.

28 games left

Aug 281:40amvs BAL (65–68)
Aug 292:05amvs BAL (65–68)
Aug 308:05pmvs BAL (65–68)
Aug 3112:05amat TEX (66–68)
Sep 112:05amat TEX (66–68)
Sep 26:35pmat TEX (66–68)
Sep 31:40amat SEA (64–70)
Sep 42:10amat SEA (64–70)

On the radar

What the market seesWhat the engine sees
PlayerPosAgeResultsSampleBoardSignal
Brent RookerDH31OPS .67048 GBREAKOUTEV95 108.675
Alika WilliamsSS27OPS .72066 GFADEEV95 104.135
Zack Gelof3B26OPS .77183 G
Shea LangeliersC28OPS .82993 GINDEXEV95 109.2

Left of the rule is the league’s own line on the player — his results, not our numbers, and never an input to any FVR signal. Right of it is what the engine measures.

The Card Pulse

What the collector market pays for this roster — movers first. A rising price is demand, not our read on the player. The full board →

Grade F · #26 of 30Heat 3.2%Value $41.72 avg
Zack GelofZack Gelof [Gold] #424
15.9%$36.99Collect →
Alika WilliamsRCAlika Williams #RA-AWI
10.2%$14.36Collect →
Nick HernandezNick Hernandez #RA-NH
4.7%$35.66Collect →
Nick KurtzNick Kurtz #BD-56
4.4%$43.00Collect →
Leo De VriesLeo De Vries [Mojo] #BCP-179
0.8%$95.76Collect →
Zack GelofRCZack Gelof #RA-ZG
0.6%$45.00Collect →
Jeff McNeilRCJeff McNeil #152
0.6%$8.83Collect →
Henry BolteHenry Bolte [Laser] #SG-HBT
0.2%$68.51Collect →
Carlos CortesCarlos Cortes #249
0.1%$35.46Collect →
Shea LangeliersRCShea Langeliers #RA-SL
0%$156Collect →
Brent RookerRCBrent Rooker #RA-BR
0%$115Collect →
Lawrence ButlerRCLawrence Butler #CBA-LB
0%$102Collect →
Henry BolteRCHenry Bolte #B23-HB
0%$65.38Collect →
Shea LangeliersShea Langeliers [Gold] #305
0%$42.59Collect →
Lawrence ButlerLawrence Butler #T91-85
0%$36.54Collect →
Alika WilliamsAlika Williams #128
0%$34.45Collect →
Brent RookerJose Ramirez / Aaron Judge / Brent Rooker #29
0%$19.99Collect →
Jeff McNeilJeff McNeil #90
0%$10.00Collect →
Ben BowdenBen Bowden #92
0%$0.06Collect →

What they pay

A market fact, not an engine read — and the club’s own row from the payroll board, computed once so the two pages cannot disagree.

vs the tax line
+$99.6Munder
MP/MW
$6.21M22 of 30 — 1 is cheapest

PROPOSED Below the floor the owners proposed on 2026-07-21 — this club would have to spend up. A proposal out of a negotiation that has not happened, not a rule. The line in force is the $244M tax threshold above.

The five biggest commitments this season

  • Luis Severino$25.0M
  • Jeff McNeil$15.8M
  • Jeffrey Springs$10.5M
  • Brent Rooker$8.0M
  • Shea Langeliers$5.3M

Cash is what the club pays out; the tax payroll is average annual values under the CBA’s own rulebook. Two answers to one question, never subtracted from one another. Figures from Cot’s, as of .

A second set of books

The numbers above are Cot’s. These are MLB Spreadsheets’s, and they answer two questions Cot’s cannot: what this payroll is made of, and where it has moved since Opening Day. We keep both sources rather than merging them, because the only thing that catches an error in one is the other.

Since Opening Day

Cash payroll
$92.3M$98.1M +$5.8M
Tax payroll
$139.2M$145.0M +$5.8M

A move is not a verdict. Adding payroll is not virtue and cutting it is not vice, so nothing here is colored — the sign is the whole fact. And a move in dollars is not a payroll in dollars: we never compare one to the other.

Where the money goes

Cash payroll

$98.1M

The bar divides the $102.2M this club pays out. It takes $4.1M back in — cash in trades — which is what brings the cash payroll to $98.1M.

Tax payroll

$145.0M

The bar divides the $151.1M this club pays out. It takes $6.1M back in — cash in trades — which is what brings the tax payroll to $145.0M.

LineCashTax
Players on the rosterSalary to the men actually playing, majors and minors.$91.4M$128.5M
Major-league salary$89.7M$126.8M
Minor-league salary$1.8M$1.8M
Players who are goneSalary buying this club no player at all.$2.0M$2.0M
Termination pay$1.7M$1.7M
Outright assignments$0.2M$0.2M
BonusesSigning bonuses charged against this season, buyouts of options declined, and bonuses already earned.$8.8M$0.6M
Signing bonuses (prorated)$8.3M
Assignment bonuses$0.5M$0.5M
Performance and award bonuses$0.1M$0.1M
Cash in tradesMoney sent out with a player traded away, or taken in — a negative figure — to absorb someone else's contract.−$4.1M−$6.1M
League chargesThe same for all thirty clubs — no front office decided to spend this.$20.1M
Benefits$18.4M
Pre-arb bonus pool$1.7M
Total$98.1M$145.0M

An em dash in one column and a figure in the other is not a missing number — it is the two rulebooks sorting the same money differently. A prorated signing bonus is in the cash figure and already inside the average annual value the tax is assessed on; league charges are the reverse. That is why the two totals differ, and why they are never subtracted from one another.

Composition and Opening Day figures from Ethan Hullihen (@EthanHullihen, MLBSpreadsheets), from a workbook whose oldest relevant sheet is dated . The workbook carries a different date on every tab, so this is the oldest of the ones we read rather than the file’s own. Every line above was checked to sum to the club’s stated total before it was printed.

Down on the farm

Organization prospects on our pre-consensus boards.

What the market seesWhat the engine sees
PlayerPosAgeClubResultsSampleBoardSignal
Henry BolteCF23AthleticsOPS .72191 G · MLBPRE-CONSENSUSEV95 110.6
Ben BowdenP31Las Vegas AviatorsERA 4.9144.0 IPINDEXStuff -0.5313
Carlos CortesRF29AthleticsOPS .734101 G · MLBINDEXEV95 104.925
Nick HernandezP31Las Vegas AviatorsERA 7.7952.0 IPINDEXStuff -0.3535
Leo De VriesSS19Midland RockHoundsOPS .83693 G · AAINDEX

Left of the rule is the league’s own line on the player — his results, not our numbers, and never an input to any FVR signal. Right of it is what the engine measures.

On the record

  • C0008 Zack Gelof · open

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