Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
PIT

Pittsburgh Pirates

National League · National League Central · PNC Park

Umpire favor

+3.8 net runs over 162 graded games — the zone was kind to the club on balance.

Biggest swings: +2.3 vs AZ · -2.0 vs STL

→ all umpire grades

The season ahead

The 2026 season is over for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Their next game is on Opening Day, March 25, 2027.

On the radar

What the market seesWhat the engine sees
PlayerPosAgeResultsSampleBoardSignal
Brandon Lowe2B32OPS .824150 GINDEXEV95 107.195
Nick Gonzales3B27OPS .755148 GINDEXEV95 103.5
Braxton AshcraftP27ERA 3.65165.1 IPINDEX—

Left of the rule is the league’s own line on the player — his results, not our numbers, and never an input to any FVR signal. Right of it is what the engine measures.

The Card Pulse

What the collector market pays for this roster — movers first. A rising price is demand, not our read on the player. The full board →

Paid link — as an eBay Partner, FVR earns from qualifying purchases.

Grade D · #23 of 30Heat ▼ 2.7%Value $62.27 avg
Bryan ReynoldsRCBryan Reynolds #US51
▲ 43.6%$37.50Find this card →
Esmerlyn ValdezEsmerlyn Valdez #CPA-EV
▼ 29.6%$322Find this card →
Oneil CruzRCOneil Cruz #128
▲ 6.5%$17.50Find this card →
Bubba ChandlerRCBubba Chandler #283
▲ 5%$52.50Find this card →
Brandon LoweRCBrandon Lowe #RA-BL
▼ 4.5%$52.50Find this card →
Konnor GriffinRCKonnor Griffin #6
▲ 3.8%$38.48Find this card →
Bubba ChandlerBubba Chandler [Mojo] #83
▲ 2.3%$35.61Find this card →
Paul SkenesPaul Skenes #H165
▲ 2%$51.00Find this card →
Oneil CruzOneil Cruz [Gold] #246
▼ 1.9%$37.65Find this card →
Bryan ReynoldsBryan Reynolds [Gold] #697
▲ 1.1%$40.85Find this card →
Henry DavisRCHenry Davis #BA-7
▲ 0.8%$107Find this card →
Ryan O'HearnRyan O'Hearn [Gold] #442
▼ 0.5%$43.66Find this card →
Nick GonzalesNick Gonzales #119
▼ 0.5%$34.28Find this card →
Ryan O'HearnRCRyan O'Hearn [Black Shimmer Refractor] #BCP-212
▲ 0.3%$47.76Find this card →
Nick GonzalesRCNick Gonzales #RA-NG
▼ 0.3%$40.85Find this card →
Braxton AshcraftBraxton Ashcraft [X-Fractor] #USC142
▼ 0.3%$35.70Find this card →
Brandon LoweBrandon Lowe #488
▼ 0.3%$35.17Find this card →
Jake MangumRCJake Mangum #AC-JM
▲ 0.2%$58.70Find this card →
Konnor GriffinKonnor Griffin #BST-7
▲ 0%$61.01Find this card →
Jake MangumJake Mangum #B25-JMA
▲ 0%$40.00Find this card →
Henry DavisHenry Davis #295
▲ 0%$10.00Find this card →
Derek DiamondDerek Diamond [Black] #HG-DD
Derek DiamondRCDerek Diamond [Black] #HG-DD

What they pay

A market fact, not an engine read — and the club’s own row from the payroll board, computed once so the two pages cannot disagree.

vs the tax line
+$119.6Munder
MP/MW
$2.27M8 of 30 — 1 is cheapest

PROPOSED Below the floor the owners proposed on 2026-07-21 — this club would have to spend up. A proposal out of a negotiation that has not happened, not a rule. The line in force is the $244M tax threshold above.

The five biggest commitments this season

  • Mitch Keller$18.9M
  • Bryan Reynolds$15.3M
  • Ryan O'Hearn$15.0M
  • Luke Weaver$11.0M
  • Paul Skenes$7.6M

Cash is what the club pays out; the tax payroll is average annual values under the CBA’s own rulebook. Two answers to one question, never subtracted from one another. Figures from Cot’s, as of .

A second set of books

The numbers above are Cot’s. These are MLB Spreadsheets’s, and they answer two questions Cot’s cannot: what this payroll is made of, and where it has moved since Opening Day. We keep both sources rather than merging them, because the only thing that catches an error in one is the other.

Where the two sources disagree

  • On cash payroll, Cot’s reads $100.1M and MLB Spreadsheets reads $107.7M — $7.6M apart, with 41 days between the two sheets.
  • On tax payroll, Cot’s reads $124.4M and MLB Spreadsheets reads $142.7M — $18.3M apart, with 41 days between the two sheets.

Both are reputable and neither is wrong on its own terms. A gap on sheets a month apart is one source catching up; a gap on sheets a few days apart is a real disagreement about what a club is paying, and nobody prints those. We do not average them, and every figure on this site says which source it came from.

Since Opening Day

Cash payroll
$102.1M → $107.7M +$5.6M
Tax payroll
$122.8M → $142.7M +$19.9M

A move is not a verdict. Adding payroll is not virtue and cutting it is not vice, so nothing here is colored — the sign is the whole fact. And a move in dollars is not a payroll in dollars: we never compare one to the other.

Where the money goes

Cash payroll

$107.7M

The bar divides the $111.2M this club pays out. It takes $3.5M back in — cash in trades — which is what brings the cash payroll to $107.7M.

Tax payroll

$142.7M

The bar divides the $145.8M this club pays out. It takes $3.2M back in — cash in trades — which is what brings the tax payroll to $142.7M.

LineCashTax
Players on the rosterSalary to the men actually playing, majors and minors.$104.7M$120.7M
Major-league salary$102.3M$118.3M
Minor-league salary$2.4M$2.4M
Players who are goneSalary buying this club no player at all.$4.5M$4.9M
Termination pay$4.0M$4.5M
Outright assignments$0.5M$0.5M
BonusesSigning bonuses charged against this season, buyouts of options declined, and bonuses already earned.$2.0M—
Cash in tradesMoney sent out with a player traded away, or taken in — a negative figure — to absorb someone else's contract.−$3.5M−$3.2M
League chargesThe same for all thirty clubs — no front office decided to spend this.—$20.2M
Benefits—$18.6M
Pre-arb bonus pool—$1.7M
Total$107.7M$142.7M

An em dash in one column and a figure in the other is not a missing number — it is the two rulebooks sorting the same money differently. A prorated signing bonus is in the cash figure and already inside the average annual value the tax is assessed on; league charges are the reverse. That is why the two totals differ, and why they are never subtracted from one another.

Composition and Opening Day figures from Ethan Hullihen (@EthanHullihen, MLBSpreadsheets), from a workbook whose oldest relevant sheet is dated . The workbook carries a different date on every tab, so this is the oldest of the ones we read rather than the file’s own. Every line above was checked to sum to the club’s stated total before it was printed.

Down on the farm

Organization prospects on our Triple-A boards.

What the market seesWhat the engine sees
PlayerPosAgeClubResultsSampleBoardSignal
Esmerlyn ValdezRF22Pittsburgh PiratesOPS .85572 G · MLBTRIPLE-AEV95 110.64
Derek BergC25Indianapolis IndiansOPS .79260 G · AATRIPLE-AEV95 108.76
Derek DiamondP25Indianapolis IndiansERA 3.1443.0 IPTRIPLE-AStuff 0.6163

Left of the rule is the league’s own line on the player — his results, not our numbers, and never an input to any FVR signal. Right of it is what the engine measures.

Follow the Pirates

The Pirates, in your inbox — every game scored mark for mark, the morning after they play. Every number reconciled to the official line, or the card doesn’t print. Nothing on off-days.

Collect the Pirates

The organization’s 2026 cardboard, from commons to the high end:

2026 Pittsburgh Pirates cards on eBay →

Paid link — as an eBay Partner, FVR earns from qualifying purchases.