Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
CWS

Chicago White Sox

American League · American League Central · Rate Field

Umpire favor

-0.7 net runs over 133 graded gamesthe zone cost the club more than it gave, on balance.

Biggest swings: -2.0 vs NYY · -1.8 vs CLE

→ all umpire grades

The season ahead

29 games left on the schedule — what’s next, then the road to the finish. Times are in your own clock.

On deck

The White Sox open Game 1 of a three-game series at Target Field against the division-rival Twins, holding first place in the American League Central.

at Minnesota Twins (64–70)

Fri, Aug 28

Game 1 of 3· Target Field

Probables: Luis Castillo vs Dean Kremer

The card will be kept live — follow along →

Division rival (American League Central)First place: Chicago White Sox

29 games left

Aug 2812:10amat MIN (64–70)
Aug 296:10pmat MIN (64–70)
Aug 306:10pmat MIN (64–70)
Aug 3112:10amat HOU (66–67)
Sep 112:10amat HOU (66–67)
Sep 212:10amat HOU (66–67)
Sep 36:10pmat HOU (66–67)
Sep 411:40pmvs MIN (64–70)

On the radar

What the market seesWhat the engine sees
PlayerPosAgeResultsSampleBoardSignal
Tristan PetersCF26OPS .821128 GFADEEV95 103.7
Miguel Vargas3B26OPS .861131 GINDEXEV95 106.99
Munetaka Murakami1B26OPS .86098 GINDEXEV95 110

Left of the rule is the league’s own line on the player — his results, not our numbers, and never an input to any FVR signal. Right of it is what the engine measures.

The Card Pulse

What the collector market pays for this roster — movers first. A rising price is demand, not our read on the player. The full board →

Grade B · #9 of 30Heat 1.3%Value $61.21 avg
Davis MartinDavis Martin #SCBA-DM
12.9%$71.52Collect →
Munetaka MurakamiRCMunetaka Murakami #5
10.9%$36.23Collect →
Tanner McDougalTanner McDougal #BA-TM3
9.2%$37.02Collect →
Tanner McDougalRCTanner McDougal #CPA-TM
7.7%$28.00Collect →
Colson MontgomeryRCColson Montgomery #157
6.8%$68.00Collect →
Colson MontgomeryColson Montgomery [Mojo] #68
4.4%$37.34Collect →
Miguel VargasMiguel Vargas [Gold] #329
2.8%$41.22Collect →
Sean BurkeRCSean Burke #RA-SBU
1.8%$65.37Collect →
Tristan PetersTristan Peters #330
1.8%$35.87Collect →
Junior PerezJunior Perez [Fuchsia Pink Mojo Refractor] #BCP-180
1%$32.51Collect →
Chase MeidrothChase Meidroth #388
0.8%$39.24Collect →
Munetaka MurakamiMunetaka Murakami [Mojo] #9
0.4%$223Collect →
Sean BurkeSean Burke #73
0.1%$33.71Collect →
Miguel VargasRCMiguel Vargas #RA-MVA
0%$74.99Collect →
Chase MeidrothRCChase Meidroth #RR-31
0%$64.00Collect →
Davis MartinRCDavis Martin #188
0%$33.60Collect →

What they pay

A market fact, not an engine read — and the club’s own row from the payroll board, computed once so the two pages cannot disagree.

vs the tax line
+$126.8Munder
MP/MW
$2.14M4 of 30 — 1 is cheapest

PROPOSED Below the floor the owners proposed on 2026-07-21 — this club would have to spend up. A proposal out of a negotiation that has not happened, not a rule. The line in force is the $244M tax threshold above.

The five biggest commitments this season

  • Andrew Benintendi$17.1M
  • Munetaka Murakami$16.5M
  • Jordan Hicks$12.5M
  • Luis Castillo$7.9M
  • Anthony Kay$5.0M

Cash is what the club pays out; the tax payroll is average annual values under the CBA’s own rulebook. Two answers to one question, never subtracted from one another. Figures from Cot’s, as of .

A second set of books

The numbers above are Cot’s. These are MLB Spreadsheets’s, and they answer two questions Cot’s cannot: what this payroll is made of, and where it has moved since Opening Day. We keep both sources rather than merging them, because the only thing that catches an error in one is the other.

Where the two sources disagree

  • On cash payroll, Cot’s reads $100.9M and MLB Spreadsheets reads $97.9M $3.0M apart, with 4 days between the two sheets.
  • On tax payroll, Cot’s reads $117.2M and MLB Spreadsheets reads $119.4M $2.2M apart, with 4 days between the two sheets.

Both are reputable and neither is wrong on its own terms. A gap on sheets a month apart is one source catching up; a gap on sheets a few days apart is a real disagreement about what a club is paying, and nobody prints those. We do not average them, and every figure on this site says which source it came from.

Since Opening Day

Cash payroll
$84.1M$97.9M +$13.8M
Tax payroll
$107.6M$119.4M +$11.8M

A move is not a verdict. Adding payroll is not virtue and cutting it is not vice, so nothing here is colored — the sign is the whole fact. And a move in dollars is not a payroll in dollars: we never compare one to the other.

Where the money goes

Cash payroll

$97.9M

The bar divides the $106.7M this club pays out. It takes $8.8M back in — cash in trades — which is what brings the cash payroll to $97.9M.

Tax payroll

$119.4M

The bar divides the $127.3M this club pays out. It takes $7.9M back in — cash in trades and adjustments and credits — which is what brings the tax payroll to $119.4M.

LineCashTax
Players on the rosterSalary to the men actually playing, majors and minors.$99.2M$102.5M
Major-league salary$97.1M$100.4M
Minor-league salary$2.1M$2.1M
Players who are goneSalary buying this club no player at all.$2.3M$2.6M
Termination pay$1.3M$1.6M
Outright assignments$1.0M$1.0M
BonusesSigning bonuses charged against this season, buyouts of options declined, and bonuses already earned.$5.2M$2.1M
Signing bonuses (prorated)$1.6M
Option buyouts$1.5M
Performance and award bonuses$1.1M$1.1M
Assignment bonuses$1.0M$1.0M
Cash in tradesMoney sent out with a player traded away, or taken in — a negative figure — to absorb someone else's contract.−$8.8M−$4.8M
League chargesThe same for all thirty clubs — no front office decided to spend this.$20.1M
Benefits$18.4M
Pre-arb bonus pool$1.7M
Adjustments and creditsBookkeeping between the club and the league office.−$3.1M
Credits−$2.0M
AAV adjustments−$1.1M
Total$97.9M$119.4M

An em dash in one column and a figure in the other is not a missing number — it is the two rulebooks sorting the same money differently. A prorated signing bonus is in the cash figure and already inside the average annual value the tax is assessed on; league charges are the reverse. That is why the two totals differ, and why they are never subtracted from one another.

Composition and Opening Day figures from Ethan Hullihen (@EthanHullihen, MLBSpreadsheets), from a workbook whose oldest relevant sheet is dated . The workbook carries a different date on every tab, so this is the oldest of the ones we read rather than the file’s own. Every line above was checked to sum to the club’s stated total before it was printed.

Down on the farm

Organization prospects on our pre-consensus boards.

What the market seesWhat the engine sees
PlayerPosAgeClubResultsSampleBoardSignal
Junior PerezCF25Charlotte KnightsOPS .70073 GPRE-CONSENSUSEV95 108.185

Left of the rule is the league’s own line on the player — his results, not our numbers, and never an input to any FVR signal. Right of it is what the engine measures.

On the record

  • C0011 Tristan Peters · hit

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