Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
PHI

Philadelphia Phillies

National League · National League East · Citizens Bank Park

Umpire favor

+13.9 net runs over 134 graded gamesthe zone was kind to the club on balance.

Biggest swings: +1.8 vs PIT · +1.5 vs TEX

→ all umpire grades

The season ahead

28 games left on the schedule — what’s next, then the road to the finish. Times are in your own clock.

On deck

at Los Angeles Angels (52–82)

Fri, Aug 28

Game 1 of 3· Angel Stadium

Probables: Andrew Painter vs Reid Detmers

The card will be kept live — follow along →

28 games left

Aug 281:38amat LAA (52–82)
Aug 292:07amat LAA (52–82)
Aug 308:07pmat LAA (52–82)
Aug 311:40amat AZ (71–63)
Sep 11:40amat AZ (71–63)
Sep 27:40pmat AZ (71–63)
Sep 410:40pmvs ATL (78–55)
Sep 510:05pmvs ATL (78–55)

On the radar

What the market seesWhat the engine sees
PlayerPosAgeResultsSampleBoardSignal
Edmundo SosaLF30OPS .64068 GBREAKOUTEV95 107.6
Adolis GarcíaRF33OPS .59967 GBREAKOUTEV95 108.11
Luis Arraez2B29OPS .788126 GINDEXEV95 98.115
Cristopher SánchezP29ERA 2.62168.1 IPINDEX
Jesús LuzardoP28ERA 3.09163.0 IPINDEX
Kyle SchwarberDH33OPS .889128 GINDEXEV95 110.295
Jhoan DuranP28ERA 1.7147.1 IPINDEX
Brandon MarshLF28OPS .748128 GINDEXEV95 104.91
Bryce Harper1B33OPS .892134 GINDEXEV95 108.37

Left of the rule is the league’s own line on the player — his results, not our numbers, and never an input to any FVR signal. Right of it is what the engine measures.

The Card Pulse

What the collector market pays for this roster — movers first. A rising price is demand, not our read on the player. The full board →

Grade B · #7 of 30Heat 1.9%Value $84.88 avg
Adolis GarcíaRCAdolis Garcia #RA-AG
30.1%$40.90Collect →
Bryce HarperBryce Harper #ES-6
11.4%$38.03Collect →
Luis ArraezRCLuis Arraez #45
3.7%$44.10Collect →
Otto KempOtto Kemp #CBA-OK
3.5%$68.87Collect →
Trea TurnerRCTrea Turner #32
3.1%$31.00Collect →
Andrew PainterRCAndrew Painter #BTP-16
3%$36.06Collect →
Justin CrawfordRCJustin Crawford #9
1.9%$35.95Collect →
Aaron NolaRCAaron Nola #114
1.4%$22.76Collect →
Kyle SchwarberKyle Schwarber #CN-13
1.1%$37.12Collect →
Kyle SchwarberRCKyle Schwarber #66
0.4%$167Collect →
Aaron NolaAaron Nola #AA-16
0.1%$79.03Collect →
Jesús LuzardoJesus Luzardo [Gold] #63
0.1%$38.75Collect →
Justin CrawfordJustin Crawford #BCP-17
0.1%$34.90Collect →
Zack WheelerZack Wheeler #AA-9
0%$580Collect →
Trea TurnerTrea Turner #HA-34
0%$140Collect →
Zack WheelerRCZack Wheeler #US50
0%$121Collect →
Luis ArraezLuis Arraez #HFA-19
0%$102Collect →
Bryce HarperRCBryce Harper #661
0%$96.54Collect →
Cristopher SánchezCristopher Sanchez [Gold] #325
0%$48.67Collect →
Jhoan DuranJhoan Duran [Gold] #83
0%$40.61Collect →
Brandon MarshBrandon Marsh [Gold] #335
0%$38.74Collect →
Edmundo SosaEdmundo Sosa [Gold] #289
0%$37.68Collect →
Adolis GarcíaAdolis Garcia [Gold] #318
0%$36.58Collect →
Andrew PainterAndrew Painter #BCP-116
0%$24.50Collect →
Jesús LuzardoRCJesus Luzardo #RA-JL
0%$22.00Collect →
Jhoan DuranRCJhoan Duran #US277
0%$20.00Collect →
Bryson StottBryson Stott #US224
0%$12.57Collect →
Brandon MarshRCBrandon Marsh #87BC-18
0%$9.07Collect →
Edmundo SosaRCEdmundo Sosa #BSB-ES
0%$1.00Collect →

What they pay

A market fact, not an engine read — and the club’s own row from the payroll board, computed once so the two pages cannot disagree.

vs the tax line
−$78.0Mover
MP/MW
$7.62M27 of 30 — 1 is cheapest

PROPOSED Above the cap the owners proposed on 2026-07-21. A proposal out of a negotiation that has not happened, not a rule. The line in force is the $244M tax threshold above.

The five biggest commitments this season

  • Zack Wheeler$42.0M
  • Bryce Harper$27.5M
  • Trea Turner$27.3M
  • Aaron Nola$24.6M
  • Kyle Schwarber$18.0M

Cash is what the club pays out; the tax payroll is average annual values under the CBA’s own rulebook. Two answers to one question, never subtracted from one another. Figures from Cot’s, as of .

A second set of books

The numbers above are Cot’s. These are MLB Spreadsheets’s, and they answer two questions Cot’s cannot: what this payroll is made of, and where it has moved since Opening Day. We keep both sources rather than merging them, because the only thing that catches an error in one is the other.

Where the two sources disagree

  • On cash payroll, Cot’s reads $288.8M and MLB Spreadsheets reads $291.7M $2.9M apart, with 1 day between the two sheets.

Both are reputable and neither is wrong on its own terms. A gap on sheets a month apart is one source catching up; a gap on sheets a few days apart is a real disagreement about what a club is paying, and nobody prints those. We do not average them, and every figure on this site says which source it came from.

Since Opening Day

Cash payroll
$284.8M$291.7M +$6.9M
Tax payroll
$315.3M$322.2M +$6.9M

A move is not a verdict. Adding payroll is not virtue and cutting it is not vice, so nothing here is colored — the sign is the whole fact. And a move in dollars is not a payroll in dollars: we never compare one to the other.

Where the money goes

Cash payroll

$291.7M

Tax payroll

$322.2M

The bar divides the $322.7M this club pays out. It takes $0.5M back in — adjustments and credits — which is what brings the tax payroll to $322.2M.

LineCashTax
Players on the rosterSalary to the men actually playing, majors and minors.$245.6M$266.6M
Major-league salary$243.4M$264.4M
Minor-league salary$2.3M$2.3M
Players who are goneSalary buying this club no player at all.$35.6M$35.6M
Termination pay$35.2M$35.2M
Outright assignments$0.4M$0.4M
BonusesSigning bonuses charged against this season, buyouts of options declined, and bonuses already earned.$10.4M$0.4M
Signing bonuses (prorated)$7.0M
Option buyouts$3.0M
Assignment bonuses$0.3M$0.3M
Performance and award bonuses$0.1M$0.1M
League chargesThe same for all thirty clubs — no front office decided to spend this.$20.1M
Benefits$18.4M
Pre-arb bonus pool$1.7M
Adjustments and creditsBookkeeping between the club and the league office.−$0.5M
Total$291.7M$322.2M

An em dash in one column and a figure in the other is not a missing number — it is the two rulebooks sorting the same money differently. A prorated signing bonus is in the cash figure and already inside the average annual value the tax is assessed on; league charges are the reverse. That is why the two totals differ, and why they are never subtracted from one another.

Composition and Opening Day figures from Ethan Hullihen (@EthanHullihen, MLBSpreadsheets), from a workbook whose oldest relevant sheet is dated . The workbook carries a different date on every tab, so this is the oldest of the ones we read rather than the file’s own. Every line above was checked to sum to the club’s stated total before it was printed.

Down on the farm

Organization prospects on our pre-consensus boards.

What the market seesWhat the engine sees
PlayerPosAgeClubResultsSampleBoardSignal
Felix ReyesLF25Philadelphia PhilliesOPS .82985 GPRE-CONSENSUSEV95 109.49
Justin CrawfordCF22Philadelphia PhilliesOPS .667124 G · MLBINDEXEV95 104.63
Otto Kemp3B26Lehigh Valley IronPigsOPS .74387 GINDEXEV95 106.77

Left of the rule is the league’s own line on the player — his results, not our numbers, and never an input to any FVR signal. Right of it is what the engine measures.

On the record

  • C0006 Edmundo Sosa · miss

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