Luis Arraez

The Chase

1 R from 500 — our pace: ≈ August 28, 2026 Follow the chase →

The card rack

FlagshipLuis Arraez #HFA-19 · 2024 Topps Homefield Advantage · 250 recent sales 7N ▲0%

$17.46Raw$59.99PSA 9$102PSA 10$133BGS 10PSA 10 · 46 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-08-27 · paid links

$17.99Ungraded$18.50Ungraded$18.99Ungraded

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The rookieLuis Arraez #45 · 2019 Topps Chrome Update · 429 recent sales 7N ▲3.7%

$4.00Raw$15.12PSA 9$44.10PSA 10$83.55BGS 10PSA 10 · 42 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-08-27 · paid links

$3.24Ungraded$4.00Ungraded$4.80Ungraded

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Paid link — as an eBay Partner, FVR earns from qualifying purchases. · Flagship = his most-traded card (the market’s reference); the rookie = the top card of his first card year. As of August 27, 2026 · trend is FVR's own nightly archive · prices via SportsCardsPro · what these terms mean

Scout’s note

Arraez hits the ball softer than anyone we track — EV95 of 98.115, 1st percentile of 366 MLB bats — and his .319 average is exactly what the physics support. The luck gap of 0.0316 is almost nothing: nothing owed, nothing borrowed. Twenty-four strikeouts in 120 games tells you how the bat works. Out of San Felipe, Venezuela, Arraez is 29 and leading the league in average. He sits No. 360 of 366 on the breakout composite; the board takes 20.

Current signals

The read: Arraez is tracked, not flagged: an EV95 of 98.1 (1st percentile of the 373 qualified MLB bats we track; median 105.8) with results within 0.028 of what the physics support — nothing owed, nothing borrowed. The boards hunt mispricing, and his price is right. He sits No. 364 of 373 on the breakout composite; the board takes 20.

SQUARE — the line and the bat agree. Where he sits in the league →

EV95 (mph)

98.115

Luck gap (park-adj)

0.0276

Overlay score

-0.5628

WAR (season · MLB calc)

4.1

Balls in play

498

Age

29

A market fact, not an engine read: what a club decided about him, on the season before this one. Figures from Cot’s, as of August 21, 2026.

2026 salary

$3.53M

Tax hit

$3.53M

Service time

6 yr 121 d

Options left

2 / 3

Regime flagged: the sheet's out-year codes read arbitration and 6.121 reads free_agency. Kept the sheet's; Super Two and optional assignments move this line and the service boundary cannot see them.

Cash and the tax hit are two different rulebooks and are never subtracted from one another — see the payroll board for his club, Philadelphia Phillies.

A second set of books

The same contract, read by MLB Spreadsheets (Ethan Hullihen), as of August 20, 2026. We keep two sources on this because one source cannot check itself.

Tax AAV

$10.0M

Guaranteed

$12.0M

Term

1 yr

His class

FA

The tax AAV above is his number under the CBA’s own rulebook, not the average we work out from Cot’s total. On a contract with deferred money the two come apart on purpose — and neither is subtracted from the other.

Collect Luis Arraez

If the signal is right, the cardboard usually finds out later. Current listings:

High-end listings ($75+) →

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Not financial advice. We take positions only after publication — never before. Misses stay on the record.

The Bureau on Luis Arraez

The scouting press, in their own words