Luis Arraez

On the record · career milestone this season

500 career runs scored — Fri, Sep 4 · night game vs. Atlanta Braves The scorecard → · The write-up →

The card rack

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FlagshipLuis Arraez #HFA-19 · 2024 Topps Homefield Advantage · 274 recent sales 7N ▲1.4%

$19.49Raw$38.96PSA 9$103PSA 10$134BGS 10PSA 10 · 60 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-10-11 · paid links

$14.99Ungraded$19.99Ungraded$19.99Ungraded

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The rookieLuis Arraez #45 · 2019 Topps Chrome Update · 370 recent sales 7N ▲0%

$3.99Raw$17.28PSA 9$40.00PSA 10$74.52BGS 10PSA 10 · 60 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-10-11 · paid links

$3.50Ungraded$3.99Ungraded$3.99Ungraded

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Paid link — as an eBay Partner, FVR earns from qualifying purchases. · Flagship = his most-traded card (the market’s reference); the rookie = the top card of his first card year. As of October 11, 2026 · trend is FVR's own nightly archive · prices via SportsCardsPro · what these terms mean

Scout’s note

Arraez hits the ball softer than almost anyone we track — an EV95 of 98.065 sits in the 1st percentile, 394th of 406 — and yet here he is batting .310, third in baseball, with just 28 strikeouts all season. The luck gap of 0.0211 says he's getting almost exactly what his contact quality earns. The San Felipe native doesn't fit the model's profile of a breakout, and the board agrees: No. 394, well outside the 20 it takes.

Note written Oct 2 · FVR scout (GLM-5.2)

Current signals

The read: Arraez is tracked, not flagged: an EV95 of 98.1 (1st percentile of the 406 qualified MLB bats we track; median 105.8) with results within 0.021 of what the physics support — nothing owed, nothing borrowed. The boards hunt mispricing, and his price is right. He sits No. 394 of 406 on the breakout composite; the board takes 20.

SQUARE — the line and the bat agree. Where he sits in the league →

EV95 (mph)

98.065

Luck gap (park-adj)

0.0211

Overlay score

-0.5122

WAR (season · MLB calc)

4.1

Balls in play

588

Age

29

A second set of books

The same contract, read by MLB Spreadsheets (Ethan Hullihen), as of September 17, 2026. We keep two sources on this because one source cannot check itself.

Tax AAV

$10.0M

Guaranteed

$12.0M

Term

1 yr

His class

FA

The tax AAV above is his number under the CBA’s own rulebook, not the average we work out from Cot’s total. On a contract with deferred money the two come apart on purpose — and neither is subtracted from the other.

Collect Luis Arraez

If the signal is right, the cardboard usually finds out later. Current listings:

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Not financial advice. We take positions only after publication — never before. Misses stay on the record.

The Bureau on Luis Arraez

The scouting press, in their own words