MLB · RF · New York Yankees

Aaron Judge

B/T R/R · 6' 7" · 282 lb · born Linden, CA, USA · age 34 · draft 2013 rd 1 · played RF 59, DH 7 · MLB debut 2016-08-13

285 plate appearances scored this season His season card →

BREAKOUTMLB Breakout Board

Fever Report 029

Photo: Arturo Pardavila III, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons (resized)

The card rack

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FlagshipAaron Judge #ES-15 · 2026 Bowman Electric Sluggers · 1569 recent sales 7N ▼8.2%

$1.56Raw$33.17PSA 9$45.00PSA 10$59.00BGS 10PSA 10 · 60 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-10-11 · paid links

$0.99Ungraded

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The rookieAaron Judge #32 · 2017 Bowman · 1390 recent sales 7N ▼5%

$26.11Raw$62.26PSA 9$190PSA 10$183BGS 10PSA 10 · 60 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-10-11 · paid links

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Scout’s note

Aaron Judge does not belong on a breakout board in the ordinary sense — 386 career home runs, a 1.020 career OPS, 1,211 MLB games for a man born in Linden, California, drafted round one in 2013. But the engine does not care about reputation; it reads contact. His EV95 of 110.8 puts him harder than 97% of qualified hitters, and his results on contact fall below the physics further than 97% of them, a luck gap of -0.0646. In 66 MLB games for the Yankees this season he has hit .241 with 18 home runs — productive, but beneath what the bat is doing. He ranks No. 4 of 20 on the breakout board, which is a strange place for a player of his stature. The 151 balls in play are fewer than most on this list, and the gap between strike and result is still open.

Note written Oct 10 · FVR scout (GLM-5.2)

We wrote about Judge here — The Buzz October 7, 2026 · September 29, 2026 · September 20, 2026 · September 19, 2026 · and 10 more

Current signals

The read: Judge is hitting the ball harder than 97% of the 406 qualified MLB hitters in our sample (EV95 110.8; league median 105.8), while his results on contact run further below the physics than 97% of them. Loud bat, quieter stat line — the breakout shape; he ranks No. 4 of 20 on the breakout board.

OWED — his contact has outrun his line. Where he sits in the league →

EV95 (mph): 110.8
Luck gap (park-adj): -0.0646
Overlay score: 0.8182
WAR (season · MLB calc): 2.0
Balls in play: 151
Sprint (ft/s): 26.7
Age: 34

The shape of the seasonEV95 111.4 → 110.6 mphweekly · trailing 75 balls in play · full-season EV95: 110.8 mph — the boards use the season figureEV95 is the top of his range, not the middle — the line can fall in the same weeks his typical contact rises.

Where he stands

through September 27, 2026

Against the 406 qualified major-league hitters — 100+ balls in play this season, the same field the boards are chosen out of. Right is better on every row.

EV95110.897
Deserved (xVal)0.54199
Got (aVal)0.46896
Luck gap (park-adjusted)flipped-0.06597

today · 30 days ago, against the 375 men who qualified then · the tick is the midpoint · the number at the right is the percentile, the number beside it the measurement itself.

What he’s paid

Under contract

A market fact, not an engine read: what a club decided about him, on the season before this one. Figures from Cot’s.

2026 salary: $40.00M
Tax hit: $40.00M
Service time: 10 yr 51 d
Guaranteed: $360M

The deal 9 years $360M (2023–2031) — $40.0M a year on average, worked out by us rather than stated on the sheet, and not the same thing as the tax hit above

On the sheet: 9 y/$360M (23-31) · agent PSI Spts · 3 / 3 options left

After this season, as the sheet has it

Season	2028	2029	2030	2031
Cash	$40.0M	$40.0M	$40.0M	$40.0M
Tax hit	$40.0M	$40.0M	$40.0M	$40.0M

Cash and the tax hit are two different rulebooks and are never subtracted from one another — see the payroll board for his club, New York Yankees.

A second set of books

The same contract, read by MLB Spreadsheets (Ethan Hullihen), as of September 17, 2026. We keep two sources on this because one source cannot check itself.

Tax AAV: $40.0M
Guaranteed: $360.0M
Term: 9 yrs
His class: FA

What the sheet prices each season at

Season	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Salary	$40.0M	$40.0M	$40.0M	$40.0M	$40.0M	$40.0M

A base salary under his own reading, and never subtracted from the cash figure above: a signing bonus lands in one and not the other, so the two disagree on most men without either being wrong. And the sheet does not mark which future seasons are GUARANTEED — a club option and a projected arbitration award are both just a number here, so read past the end of the deal as his forecast rather than as money owed.

Two sources, read a month apart, put this guarantee at the same dollar. That is the check, and it passed.

The tax AAV above is his number under the CBA’s own rulebook, not the average we work out from Cot’s total. On a contract with deferred money the two come apart on purpose — and neither is subtracted from the other.

The Wire

▼ On the field: Yankees drought hits 17 years after Rays sweep; Aaron Judge cites black-and-white championship standard.

X chatter, trailing 2 days · as of 2026-10-10 · newest post 2026-10-08 · summarized by Grok (xAI) · how this works →

Collect Aaron Judge

If the signal is right, the cardboard usually finds out later. Current listings:

Aaron Judge cards on eBay →

High-end listings ($75+) →

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Not financial advice. We take positions only after publication — never before. Misses stay on the record.

The Bureau on Aaron Judge

The scouting press, in their own words

The Yankees' title drought extended to 17 seasons last night, the second-longest skid in franchise history. And all Aaron Judge could do was watch. "There's a standard to win a championship," Judge said. "It's black and white. There's no gray area." https://t.co/vslZ8jXXzJ
Jorge Castillo · ESPN · October 8 · on X →

https://t.co/vZDY6Xg4Ok Two big NYY October questions: Do they need Stanton and Judge? Will they make an impact. “I feel like my timing’s pretty good. But at this point, it’s about results. I need to see impact,” Stanton, the active one, tells The Post
Jon Heyman · New York Post · October 5 · on X →

Podcast https://t.co/UkRhjhYBV0 David Schoenfield discusses Chourio, Miller, the Brewers' crazy win, the Braves' decision to hold Sale to Game 3, the White Sox situation going into Game 2. @RealMichaelKay talks Rays, Yankees, Judge.
Buster Olney · ESPN · October 5 · on X →

Umpire favor

+2.6 net runs over 30 graded games — the zone was kind to the umpire on balance.

Biggest swings: -1.4 · +0.8

→ all umpire grades

The line

Year	Team	Lvl	G	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	AVG	OPS
2016	New York Yankees	MLB	27	84	10	15	4	10	0	9	42	.179	.608
2017	New York Yankees	MLB	155	542	128	154	52	114	9	127	208	.284	1.049
2018	New York Yankees	MLB	112	413	77	115	27	67	6	76	152	.278	.920
2019	New York Yankees	MLB	102	378	75	103	27	55	3	64	141	.272	.921
2020	New York Yankees	MLB	28	101	23	26	9	22	0	10	32	.257	.890
2021	New York Yankees	MLB	148	550	89	158	39	98	6	75	158	.287	.917
2022	New York Yankees	MLB	157	570	133	177	62	131	16	111	175	.311	1.111
2023	New York Yankees	MLB	106	367	79	98	37	75	3	88	130	.267	1.019
2024	New York Yankees	MLB	158	559	122	180	58	144	10	133	171	.322	1.159
2025	New York Yankees	MLB	152	541	137	179	53	114	12	124	160	.331	1.145
2026	New York Yankees	MLB	66	237	45	57	18	41	5	43	85	.241	.871
MLB CAREER			1211	4342	918	1262	386	871	70	860	1454	.291	1.020

Bio & season lines: MLB StatsAPI · refreshed nightly · abbreviations →