MLB · RF · New York Yankees

Aaron Judge

B/T R/R · 6' 7" · 282 lb · born Linden, CA, USA · age 34 · draft 2013 rd 1 · played RF 53, DH 6 · MLB debut 2016-08-13

Injured 60-Day · Right rib stress fracture. (roster status, as of August 27, 2026)

261 plate appearances scored this season His season card →

BREAKOUTMLB Breakout Board

Photo: Arturo Pardavila III, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons (resized)

The card rack

FlagshipAaron Judge #ES-15 · 2026 Bowman Electric Sluggers · 724 recent sales 7N ▲0%

$1.91Raw$12.83PSA 9$53.00PSA 10$69.00BGS 10PSA 10 · 46 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-08-27 · paid links

$0.99Ungraded

$1.25Ungraded

See all on eBay →

The rookieAaron Judge #32 · 2017 Bowman · 1549 recent sales 7N ▼3.7%

$24.43Raw$58.00PSA 9$195PSA 10$183BGS 10PSA 10 · 42 nights

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-08-27 · paid links

Paid link — as an eBay Partner, FVR earns from qualifying purchases. · Flagship = his most-traded card (the market’s reference); the rookie = the top card of his first card year. As of August 27, 2026 · trend is FVR's own nightly archive · prices via SportsCardsPro · what these terms mean

Scout’s note

Judge at No. 5 on the breakout board sounds absurd until you look at the numbers: an EV95 of 110.9, harder than 96% of qualified hitters, with a luck gap of -0.0656 meaning his results trail the physics by more than 97% of the sample. A first-round pick from Linden, California, in 2013, Judge has 385 career home runs and a 1.022 OPS across 1,204 games — and yet this season, in 59 games, he's hitting .248 with 17 home runs and 38 RBI. The .908 OPS would be a career year for most players; for Judge it's an underperformance the engine can see in the contact. He's 34, 6-foot-7 and 282 pounds, and the sprint speed has settled at 26.7. The bat is still among the loudest in the game, and the stat line hasn't caught up to it.

We wrote about Judge here — The Buzz August 25, 2026 · July 19, 2026 · July 18, 2026

Current signals

The read: Judge is hitting the ball harder than 96% of the 373 qualified MLB hitters in our sample (EV95 110.9; league median 105.8), while his results on contact run further below the physics than 97% of them. Loud bat, quieter stat line — the breakout shape; he ranks No. 5 of 20 on the breakout board.

OWED — his contact has outrun his line. Where he sits in the league →

EV95 (mph): 110.9
Luck gap (park-adj): -0.0656
Overlay score: 0.8302
WAR (season · MLB calc): 2.1
Balls in play: 141
Sprint (ft/s): 26.7
Age: 34

The shape of the seasonEV95 111.4 → 110.7 mphweekly · trailing 75 balls in play · full-season EV95: 110.9 mph — the boards use the season figureEV95 is the top of his range, not the middle — the line can fall in the same weeks his typical contact rises.

Where he stands

through August 26, 2026

Against the 373 qualified major-league hitters — 100+ balls in play this season, the same field the boards are chosen out of. Right is better on every row.

EV95110.996
Deserved (xVal)0.54299
Got (aVal)0.46797
Luck gap (park-adjusted)flipped-0.06697

today · 30 days ago, against the 330 men who qualified then · the tick is the midpoint · the number at the right is the percentile, the number beside it the measurement itself.

What he’s paid

Under contract

A market fact, not an engine read: what a club decided about him, on the season before this one. Figures from Cot’s, as of August 3, 2026.

2026 salary: $40.00M
Tax hit: $40.00M
Service time: 9 yr 51 d
Guaranteed: $360M

The deal 9 years $360M (2023–2031) — $40.0M a year on average, worked out by us rather than stated on the sheet, and not the same thing as the tax hit above

On the sheet: 9 y/$360M (23-31) · agent PSI Spts · 3 / 3 options left

After this season, as the sheet has it

Season	2027	2028	2029	2030
Cash	$40.0M	$40.0M	$40.0M	$40.0M
Tax hit	$40.0M	$40.0M	$40.0M	$40.0M

Cash and the tax hit are two different rulebooks and are never subtracted from one another — see the payroll board for his club, New York Yankees.

A second set of books

The same contract, read by MLB Spreadsheets (Ethan Hullihen), as of August 20, 2026. We keep two sources on this because one source cannot check itself.

Tax AAV: $40.0M
Guaranteed: $360.0M
Term: 9 yrs
His class: FA

What the sheet prices each season at

Season	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Salary	$40.0M	$40.0M	$40.0M	$40.0M	$40.0M	$40.0M

A base salary under his own reading, and never subtracted from the cash figure above: a signing bonus lands in one and not the other, so the two disagree on most men without either being wrong. And the sheet does not mark which future seasons are GUARANTEED — a club option and a projected arbitration award are both just a number here, so read past the end of the deal as his forecast rather than as money owed.

Two sources, read a month apart, put this guarantee at the same dollar. That is the check, and it passed.

The tax AAV above is his number under the CBA’s own rulebook, not the average we work out from Cot’s total. On a contract with deferred money the two come apart on purpose — and neither is subtracted from the other.

Collect Aaron Judge

If the signal is right, the cardboard usually finds out later. Current listings:

Aaron Judge cards on eBay →

High-end listings ($75+) →

Paid link — as an eBay Partner, FVR earns from qualifying purchases.

Not financial advice. We take positions only after publication — never before. Misses stay on the record.

The Bureau on Aaron Judge

The scouting press, in their own words

Could Yordan Álvarez set a new AL record for intentional walks? He is not on that pace, but it's possible. Aaron Judge set the record last year with 36. Álvarez entered today at 28. The NL record, you ask? Barry Bonds in 2004. That number: 120! @MLBNetwork
Jon Morosi · MLB Network · August 26 · on X →

https://t.co/IXwbgdW7o3 1 big issue without Judge has been ineffectiveness for the Yankees vs LHP, and in a huge series this weekend Boston is poised to unleash a lot of LHP.
Joel Sherman · New York Post · August 26 · on X →

https://t.co/6HtUT8BDcu Even Mr. Happy Talk Aaron Boone admits, “It’s been a struggle.” But for one night at least, a struggling, giving opponent helped the Yankees out of their offensive funk (MLB worst BA since Judge went out)
Jon Heyman · New York Post · August 12 · on X →

Umpire favor

+2.7 net runs over 23 graded games — the zone was kind to him on balance.

Biggest swings: +0.8 · -0.7

→ all umpire grades

The line

Year	Team	Lvl	G	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BB	SO	AVG	OPS
2016	New York Yankees	MLB	27	84	10	15	4	10	0	9	42	.179	.608
2017	New York Yankees	MLB	155	542	128	154	52	114	9	127	208	.284	1.049
2018	New York Yankees	MLB	112	413	77	115	27	67	6	76	152	.278	.920
2019	New York Yankees	MLB	102	378	75	103	27	55	3	64	141	.272	.921
2020	New York Yankees	MLB	28	101	23	26	9	22	0	10	32	.257	.890
2021	New York Yankees	MLB	148	550	89	158	39	98	6	75	158	.287	.917
2022	New York Yankees	MLB	157	570	133	177	62	131	16	111	175	.311	1.111
2023	New York Yankees	MLB	106	367	79	98	37	75	3	88	130	.267	1.019
2024	New York Yankees	MLB	158	559	122	180	58	144	10	133	171	.322	1.159
2025	New York Yankees	MLB	152	541	137	179	53	114	12	124	160	.331	1.145
2026	New York Yankees	MLB	59	214	43	53	17	38	5	42	72	.248	.908
MLB CAREER			1204	4319	916	1258	385	868	70	859	1441	.291	1.022

Bio & season lines: MLB StatsAPI · refreshed nightly · abbreviations →