Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-04-15

COL @ HOU

Home plate: Stu Scheurwater

The zone shrank when the pitchers needed it most.

D
Umpire Grade
88.2% accurate
0.2
Run Favor
runs, COL
4
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Stu Scheurwater called the 153 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 135 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Carlos Correa — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Yainer Diaz — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Yainer Diaz — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Jordan Beck — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).4Challenge 5: Edouard Julien — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.302 · 3-1 strike called ball
    Ezequiel Tovar vs Spencer Arrighetti
  2. 2+0.303 · 3-1 strike called ball
    Troy Johnston vs Spencer Arrighetti
  3. 3-0.304 · 3-1 ball called strike
    Carlos Correa vs Jaden Hill

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 4 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Carlos Correa — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Yainer Diaz — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Yainer Diaz — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  4. 4Jordan Beck — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  5. 5Edouard Julien — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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