Fever BaseballFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
RECORD: 0 HIT · 0 MISS · 12 OPEN · FIRST CALL RESOLVES AUG 12
Support the paperGet the Digest
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-04-24

COL @ NYM

Home plate: Nick Mahrley

“Hawkeye did more talking than the umpire tonight.”

B
Umpire Grade
92.1% accurate
0.6
Run Favor
runs, COL
5
ABS Overturns
of 6 reviewed

What this shows — how Nick Mahrley called the 126 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 116 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Kyle Karros — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Freddy Peralta — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Francisco Alvarez — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Jordan Beck — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4Challenge 5: Francisco Alvarez — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).5Challenge 6: Troy Johnston — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).6
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.39▲8 · 2-2 strike called ball
    Brenton Doyle vs Sean Manaea
  2. 2+0.28▲2 · 1-2 strike called ball· challenged ✓
    Kyle Karros vs Freddy Peralta
  3. 3+0.23▲7 · 0-2 strike called ball· challenged ✓
    Jordan Beck vs Sean Manaea

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

6 pitches went to the robots · 5 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is Hawkeye ground truth, no model involved.

  1. 1Kyle Karros — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Freddy Peralta — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3Francisco Alvarez — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  4. 4Jordan Beck — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  5. 5Francisco Alvarez — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  6. 6Troy Johnston — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 6 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.