Fever BaseballFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
RECORD: 0 HIT · 0 MISS · 12 OPEN · FIRST CALL RESOLVES AUG 12
Support the paperGet the Digest
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-04-29

COL @ CIN

Home plate: Nate Tomlinson

“Solid and unspectacular — exactly what the job asks.”

A-
Umpire Grade
94.9% accurate
0.3
Run Favor
runs, CIN
0
ABS Overturns
of 2 reviewed

What this shows — how Nate Tomlinson called the 157 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 149 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Sal Stewart — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Brett Sullivan — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).2
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.21▲3 · 3-0 strike called ball
    Brenton Doyle vs Brandon Williamson
  2. 2+0.20▼2 · 2-1 strike called ball· challenged
    Nathaniel Lowe vs Tomoyuki Sugano
  3. 3-0.13▲1 · 1-1 ball called strike
    Kyle Karros vs Brandon Williamson

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

2 pitches went to the robots · 0 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is Hawkeye ground truth, no model involved.

  1. 1Sal Stewart — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  2. 2Brett Sullivan — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 1 of 2 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.