Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-05-16

TOR @ DET

Home plate: Dan Merzel

The zone kept its promises.

B
Umpire Grade
92.7% accurate
0.7
Run Favor
runs, TOR
3
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Dan Merzel called the 123 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 114 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Kevin McGonigle — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Dillon Dingler — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Davis Schneider — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Brandon Valenzuela — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.283 · 1-2 ball called strike
    Jake Rogers vs Spencer Miles
  2. 2-0.285 · 1-2 ball called strike· challenged
    Kevin McGonigle vs Spencer Miles
  3. 3-0.206 · 2-1 ball called strike· challenged
    Dillon Dingler vs Braydon Fisher

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 3 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Kevin McGonigle — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Dillon Dingler — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3Davis Schneider — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  4. 4Brandon Valenzuela — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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