Fever BaseballFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
RECORD: 0 HIT · 0 MISS · 12 OPEN · FIRST CALL RESOLVES AUG 12
Support the paperGet the Digest
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-05-22

HOU @ CHC

Home plate: Chad Fairchild

“Pitchers earned every strike the hard way.”

B-
Umpire Grade
91.1% accurate
0.2
Run Favor
runs, CHC
4
ABS Overturns
of 6 reviewed

What this shows — how Chad Fairchild called the 168 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 153 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Nico Hoerner — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Zach Cole — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Christian Vázquez — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Carson Kelly — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4Challenge 5: Jeremy Peña — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).5Challenge 6: Cam Smith — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).6
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.69▼8 · 3-2 strike called ball
    Pete Crow-Armstrong vs Bryan Abreu
  2. 2-0.30▼9 · 3-1 ball called strike
    Michael Busch vs Bryan King
  3. 3+0.28▼2 · 1-2 strike called ball
    Michael Conforto vs Spencer Arrighetti

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

6 pitches went to the robots · 4 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is Hawkeye ground truth, no model involved.

  1. 1Nico Hoerner — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Zach Cole — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Christian Vázquez — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  4. 4Carson Kelly — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  5. 5Jeremy Peña — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  6. 6Cam Smith — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 6 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.