Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-06-28

COL @ MIN

Home plate: Dan Merzel

Reliable as a Tuesday: no complaints, no headlines.

A
Umpire Grade
95.3% accurate
0.9
Run Favor
runs, COL
2
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Dan Merzel called the 106 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 101 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Alex Jackson — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Braxton Fulford — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Braxton Fulford — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.691 · 3-2 strike called ball· challenged
    Kyle Karros vs Connor Prielipp
  2. 2+0.196 · 2-0 strike called ball· challenged
    Byron Buxton vs Ryan Feltner
  3. 3-0.198 · 2-0 ball called strike
    Kody Clemens vs Juan Mejia

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Alex Jackson — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Braxton Fulford — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Braxton Fulford — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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