Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-07-12

CHC @ CIN

Home plate: Alex MacKay

A small strike zone, generously enforced for the offense.

C+
Umpire Grade
90.2% accurate
0.3
Run Favor
runs, CHC
2
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Alex MacKay called the 163 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 147 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Eugenio Suárez — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Tyler Stephenson — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Carson Kelly — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Sal Stewart — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.395 · 2-2 strike called ball
    Seiya Suzuki vs Chase Petty
  2. 2+0.238 · 0-2 strike called ball· challenged
    Noelvi Marte vs Gavin Hollowell
  3. 3-0.219 · 3-0 ball called strike
    Pedro Ramírez vs Rhett Lowder

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Eugenio Suárez — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  2. 2Tyler Stephenson — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Carson Kelly — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  4. 4Sal Stewart — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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