Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-08-19

NYY @ BAL

Home plate: Ryan Wills

The zone kept its promises.

B+
Umpire Grade
93.8% accurate
0.8
Run Favor
runs, BAL
1
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Ryan Wills called the 179 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 168 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Pete Alonso — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Ryan McMahon — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Austin Wells — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Trent Grisham — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.695 · 3-2 ball called strike
    Trent Grisham vs Chris Bassitt
  2. 2+0.391 · 2-2 strike called ball
    Samuel Basallo vs Will Warren
  3. 3+0.289 · 1-2 strike called ball
    Trent Grisham vs Alex Hoppe

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Pete Alonso — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  2. 2Ryan McMahon — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Austin Wells — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  4. 4Trent Grisham — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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