Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-08-21

CLE @ COL

Home plate: Nate Tomlinson

The kind of night where the umpire is the least of the story.

A-
Umpire Grade
94.9% accurate
0.2
Run Favor
runs, COL
1
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Nate Tomlinson called the 158 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 150 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Patrick Bailey — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Willi Castro — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Patrick Bailey — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.204 · 2-1 strike called ball
    Mickey Moniak vs Joey Cantillo
  2. 2-0.207 · 2-1 ball called strike
    Kyle Karros vs Colin Holderman
  3. 3+0.103 · 0-1 strike called ball
    Jake McCarthy vs Joey Cantillo

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Patrick Bailey — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2Willi Castro — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  3. 3Patrick Bailey — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 2 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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