Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-05-10

TB @ BOS

Home plate: John Libka

The strike zone picked a side, and wasn't shy about it.

B+
Umpire Grade
93.1% accurate
1.4
Run Favor
runs, TB
3
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how John Libka called the 130 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 121 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Willson Contreras — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Mickey Gasper — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Ceddanne Rafaela — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Nick Fortes — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4Challenge 5: Chandler Simpson — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.696 · 3-2 strike called ball
    Ben Williamson vs Zack Kelly
  2. 2-0.398 · 2-2 ball called strike
    Trevor Story vs Garrett Cleavinger
  3. 3-0.237 · 0-2 ball called strike· challenged
    Nick Fortes vs Justin Slaten

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 3 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Willson Contreras — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Mickey Gasper — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Ceddanne Rafaela — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  4. 4Nick Fortes — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  5. 5Chandler Simpson — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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