Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-07-19

BAL @ HOU

Home plate: Chris Segal

The strike zone picked a side, and wasn't shy about it.

A-
Umpire Grade
94.2% accurate
1.1
Run Favor
runs, BAL
3
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Chris Segal called the 172 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 162 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Yainer Diaz — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Yainer Diaz — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Nick Allen — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Yainer Diaz — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).4Challenge 5: Yainer Diaz — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.694 · 3-2 strike called ball· challenged
    Colton Cowser vs Hunter Brown
  2. 2+0.303 · 3-1 strike called ball· challenged
    Pete Alonso vs Hunter Brown
  3. 3+0.213 · 3-0 strike called ball· challenged
    Pete Alonso vs Hunter Brown

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 3 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Yainer Diaz — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Yainer Diaz — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Nick Allen — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  4. 4Yainer Diaz — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  5. 5Yainer Diaz — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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