Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-07-22

DET @ CHC

Home plate: Derek Thomas

The zone leaned, and the ledger noticed.

A-
Umpire Grade
94.0% accurate
1.2
Run Favor
runs, CHC
1
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Derek Thomas called the 150 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 141 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Pete Crow-Armstrong — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Dillon Dingler — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Dillon Dingler — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.699 · 3-2 strike called ball· challenged
    Ian Happ vs Kenley Jansen
  2. 2-0.396 · 2-2 ball called strike
    Spencer Torkelson vs Ryan Rolison
  3. 3-0.136 · 1-0 ball called strike
    Kerry Carpenter vs Ryan Rolison

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Pete Crow-Armstrong — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  2. 2Dillon Dingler — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3Dillon Dingler — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 1 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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