Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-08-04

DET @ SEA

Home plate: Nate Tomlinson

The grade leaned — the ledger says which way.

A-
Umpire Grade
94.5% accurate
1.5
Run Favor
runs, DET
3
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Nate Tomlinson called the 145 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 137 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Cal Raleigh — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Brendan Donovan — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Javier Báez — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Dillon Dingler — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.694 · 3-2 strike called ball
    Zach McKinstry vs Emerson Hancock
  2. 2+0.699 · 3-2 strike called ball· challenged
    Javier Báez vs Seranthony Domínguez
  3. 3-0.209 · 2-1 ball called strike
    Dominic Canzone vs Yilber Díaz

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 3 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Cal Raleigh — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2Brendan Donovan — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Javier Báez — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  4. 4Dillon Dingler — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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