Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-08-18

SEA @ MIL

Home plate: Adrian Johnson

The plate grew a few inches after the first pitch.

D
Umpire Grade
86.9% accurate
0.2
Run Favor
runs, SEA
2
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Adrian Johnson called the 199 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 173 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: William Contreras — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: William Contreras — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Cal Raleigh — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.301 · 3-1 ball called strike
    Julio Rodríguez vs Kyle Harrison
  2. 2+0.237 · 0-2 strike called ball
    Brock Rodden vs Shane Drohan
  3. 3+0.215 · 3-0 strike called ball
    Brice Turang vs Bryce Miller

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1William Contreras — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2William Contreras — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3Cal Raleigh — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 1 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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