Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-08-23

NYM @ CWS

Home plate: Dexter Kelley

The zone stretched its legs.

B+
Umpire Grade
93.6% accurate
0.0
Run Favor
runs, CWS
4
ABS Overturns
of 8 reviewed

What this shows — how Dexter Kelley called the 156 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 146 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Braden Montgomery — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Luis Torrens — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Luis Torrens — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Munetaka Murakami — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4Challenge 5: Jared Young — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).5Challenge 6: Jake Rogers — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).6Challenge 7: Munetaka Murakami — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).7Challenge 8: A.J. Ewing — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).8
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.237 · 0-2 strike called ball
    Jake Rogers vs Dedniel Núñez
  2. 2+0.197 · 2-0 strike called ball
    Jared Young vs Hagen Smith
  3. 3-0.101 · 0-1 ball called strike
    Sam Antonacci vs Nolan McLean

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

8 pitches went to the robots · 4 overturned (ump overruled) · 4 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Braden Montgomery — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Luis Torrens — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3Luis Torrens — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  4. 4Munetaka Murakami — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  5. 5Jared Young — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  6. 6Jake Rogers — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  7. 7Munetaka Murakami — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  8. 8A.J. Ewing — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 8 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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