Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-08-24

COL @ WSH

Home plate: Nick Mahrley

The zone kept its promises.

A
Umpire Grade
95.0% accurate
0.3
Run Favor
runs, COL
2
ABS Overturns
of 6 reviewed

What this shows — how Nick Mahrley called the 160 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 152 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Brett Sullivan — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Jake McCarthy — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Jake McCarthy — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Keibert Ruiz — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).4Challenge 5: Keibert Ruiz — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).5Challenge 6: Brett Sullivan — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).6
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.208 · 2-1 ball called strike
    Brady House vs Blake Adams
  2. 2+0.138 · 1-1 strike called ball
    Mickey Moniak vs Clayton Beeter
  3. 3+0.108 · 0-1 strike called ball· challenged
    Brady House vs Blake Adams

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

6 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 4 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Brett Sullivan — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Jake McCarthy — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Jake McCarthy — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  4. 4Keibert Ruiz — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  5. 5Keibert Ruiz — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  6. 6Brett Sullivan — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 6 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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