Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-08-27

MIL @ NYM

Home plate: Nic Lentz

The zone kept its promises.

A-
Umpire Grade
94.8% accurate
0.3
Run Favor
runs, NYM
2
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Nic Lentz called the 154 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 146 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Gary Sánchez — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: A.J. Ewing — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Gary Sánchez — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Francisco Alvarez — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4Challenge 5: Gary Sánchez — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.397 · 2-2 strike called ball
    Christopher Morel vs Antonio Senzatela
  2. 2+0.231 · 0-2 strike called ball
    Joey Ortiz vs Sean Manaea
  3. 3+0.205 · 2-1 strike called ball
    Luis Robert Jr. vs Jacob Misiorowski

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Gary Sánchez — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2A.J. Ewing — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  3. 3Gary Sánchez — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  4. 4Francisco Alvarez — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  5. 5Gary Sánchez — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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