Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-08-29

BAL @ ATH

Home plate: Gabe Morales

The zone kept its promises.

A
Umpire Grade
95.8% accurate
0.4
Run Favor
runs, ATH
2
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Gabe Morales called the 142 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 136 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Lawrence Butler — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Donovan Walton — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Jonah Heim — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.281 · 1-2 strike called ball
    Henry Bolte vs Shane Baz
  2. 2-0.135 · 1-0 ball called strike
    Carlos Cortes vs Shane Baz
  3. 3-0.137 · 1-0 ball called strike
    Jonah Heim vs Rico Garcia

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Lawrence Butler — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Donovan Walton — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Jonah Heim — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 1 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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