Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-08-29

PHI @ LAA

Home plate: Dan Merzel

An honest evening's grade: nothing loud, nothing missed by much.

A
Umpire Grade
95.6% accurate
0.4
Run Favor
runs, PHI
1
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Dan Merzel called the 160 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 153 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Travis d'Arnaud — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Oswald Peraza — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Wade Meckler — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.192 · 2-0 ball called strike
    Bryson Stott vs Ryan Johnson
  2. 2+0.132 · 1-0 strike called ball· challenged
    Trea Turner vs Ryan Johnson
  3. 3+0.102 · 0-1 strike called ball
    Kyle Schwarber vs Ryan Johnson

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Travis d'Arnaud — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2Oswald Peraza — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Wade Meckler — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 1 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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