Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-08-31

SEA @ BOS

Home plate: Lance Barksdale

The zone kept its promises.

A-
Umpire Grade
94.5% accurate
0.5
Run Favor
runs, BOS
0
ABS Overturns
of 3 reviewed

What this shows — how Lance Barksdale called the 163 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 154 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: J.P. Crawford — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Josh Naylor — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Connor Wong — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.304 · 3-1 strike called ball
    Caleb Durbin vs George Kirby
  2. 2+0.131 · 1-0 strike called ball
    Randy Arozarena vs Payton Tolle
  3. 3+0.132 · 1-0 strike called ball
    Caleb Durbin vs George Kirby

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

3 pitches went to the robots · 0 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1J.P. Crawford — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  2. 2Josh Naylor — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  3. 3Connor Wong — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 3 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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