Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-04

BOS @ BAL

Home plate: Adrian Johnson

“Tonight's zone had a rooting interest.”

C+
Umpire Grade
91.0% accurate
1.0
Run Favor
runs, BOS
1
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Adrian Johnson called the 144 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone, or, on a pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge, against its ruling. 131 were right. Below, only the misses are plotted, alongside every challenged pitch.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Carlos Narváez — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Roman Anthony — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Jarren Duran — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Carlos Narváez — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed). Our tracking puts it on the other side of the line; the grade follows the ruling.4*
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

* Graded on the ABS ruling. ABS measures its own zone, set by the batter’s height and taken at the middle of the plate, and our tracking puts this pitch on the other side of the line.

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.69▲2 · 3-2 strike called ball· challenged ✓
    Caleb Durbin vs Shane Baz
  2. 2+0.28▲3 · 1-2 strike called ball
    Eli White vs Shane Baz
  3. 3-0.21▲1 · 3-0 ball called strike
    Adley Rutschman vs Shane Baz

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Carlos Narváez — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Roman Anthony — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  3. 3Jarren Duran — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  4. 4Carlos Narváez — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone). Where the two disagree, the umpire is graded on the ABS ruling.

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