Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-06

MIL @ CIN

Home plate: Nestor Ceja

The zone kept its promises.

A-
Umpire Grade
94.9% accurate
0.4
Run Favor
runs, CIN
0
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Nestor Ceja called the 234 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 222 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Elly De La Cruz — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Bo Naylor — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Tyler Stephenson — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).3Challenge 4: Gary Sánchez — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.392 · 2-2 strike called ball
    Elly De La Cruz vs Kyle Harrison
  2. 2+0.308 · 3-1 strike called ball
    Sal Stewart vs JoJo Romero
  3. 3-0.219 · 3-0 ball called strike
    Jake Bauers vs Pierce Johnson

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 0 overturned (ump overruled) · 4 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Elly De La Cruz — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  2. 2Bo Naylor — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  3. 3Tyler Stephenson — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  4. 4Gary Sánchez — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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