Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-07

NYM @ MIA

Home plate: Alfonso Márquez

“If it was close, it was a strike. The hitters noticed.”

C
Umpire Grade
89.1% accurate
0.4
Run Favor
runs, NYM
2
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Alfonso Márquez called the 174 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone, or, on a pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge, against its ruling. 155 were right. Below, only the misses are plotted, alongside every challenged pitch.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Bo Bichette — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Marcus Semien — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Francisco Alvarez — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed). Our tracking puts it on the other side of the line; the grade follows the ruling.3*Challenge 4: Owen Caissie — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).4Challenge 5: Graham Pauley — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

* Graded on the ABS ruling. ABS measures its own zone, set by the batter’s height and taken at the middle of the plate, and our tracking puts this pitch on the other side of the line.

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.28▼9 · 1-2 ball called strike· challenged ✓
    Graham Pauley vs Austin Warren
  2. 2-0.21▲2 · 3-0 ball called strike
    Juan Soto vs Eury Pérez
  3. 3+0.21▲5 · 3-0 strike called ball
    Nick Morabito vs Cade Gibson

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Bo Bichette — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  2. 2Marcus Semien — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3Francisco Alvarez — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  4. 4Owen Caissie — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  5. 5Graham Pauley — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone). Where the two disagree, the umpire is graded on the ABS ruling.

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