Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-11

HOU @ TB

Home plate: Jacob Metz

“The zone had wings tonight.”

B-
Umpire Grade
91.3% accurate
0.5
Run Favor
runs, HOU
3
ABS Overturns
of 5 reviewed

What this shows — how Jacob Metz called the 115 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone, or, on a pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge, against its ruling. 105 were right. Below, only the misses are plotted, alongside every challenged pitch.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Christian Walker — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Yainer Diaz — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Richie Palacios — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Liam Hicks — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4Challenge 5: Liam Hicks — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).5
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.39▼5 · 2-2 ball called strike· challenged ✓
    Richie Palacios vs Ethan Pecko
  2. 2-0.19▲4 · 2-0 ball called strike
    Christian Walker vs Drew Rasmussen
  3. 3-0.13▲2 · 1-1 ball called strike· challenged ✓
    Christian Walker vs Drew Rasmussen

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

5 pitches went to the robots · 3 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Christian Walker — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  2. 2Yainer Diaz — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  3. 3Richie Palacios — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  4. 4Liam Hicks — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  5. 5Liam Hicks — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 5 of 5 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone). Where the two disagree, the umpire is graded on the ABS ruling.

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