Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-13

HOU @ TB

Home plate: Bruce Dreckman

Borderline went to the battery all night.

D
Umpire Grade
86.1% accurate
0.6
Run Favor
runs, HOU
2
ABS Overturns
of 6 reviewed

What this shows — how Bruce Dreckman called the 165 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 142 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Nick Fortes — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Yainer Diaz — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Daulton Varsho — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Yainer Diaz — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).4Challenge 5: Nick Fortes — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).5Challenge 6: Taylor Trammell — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).6
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.391 · 2-2 strike called ball· challenged
    Jeremy Peña vs Freddy Peralta
  2. 2+0.396 · 2-2 strike called ball
    Nelson Velázquez vs Brody Hopkins
  3. 3+0.281 · 1-2 strike called ball
    Jonathan Aranda vs Hayden Wesneski

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

6 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 4 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Nick Fortes — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2Yainer Diaz — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  3. 3Daulton Varsho — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  4. 4Yainer Diaz — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  5. 5Nick Fortes — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  6. 6Taylor Trammell — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 6 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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