Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-09-19

MIL @ BAL

Home plate: Alex MacKay

“A workmanlike night — nothing to frame, nothing to fix.”

B+
Umpire Grade
93.5% accurate
0.2
Run Favor
runs, MIL
2
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Alex MacKay called the 123 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 115 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Samuel Basallo — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Garrett Mitchell — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: William Contreras — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Christian Encarnacion-Strand — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.69▼8 · 3-2 strike called ball· challenged ✓
    Coby Mayo vs Abner Uribe
  2. 2+0.23▲8 · 0-2 strike called ball
    Luis Lara vs Trevor Rogers
  3. 3-0.13▼1 · 1-0 ball called strike
    Pete Alonso vs Robert Gasser

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Samuel Basallo — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2Garrett Mitchell — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3William Contreras — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  4. 4Christian Encarnacion-Strand — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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