Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-10-03

SD @ MIL

Home plate: Nick Mahrley

“A workmanlike night — nothing to frame, nothing to fix.”

B
Umpire Grade
92.9% accurate
0.3
Run Favor
runs, MIL
2
ABS Overturns
of 4 reviewed

What this shows — how Nick Mahrley called the 154 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 143 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: William Contreras — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Manny Machado — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Xander Bogaerts — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: William Contreras — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).4
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.30▲5 · 3-1 ball called strike· challenged ✓
    Manny Machado vs Antonio Senzatela
  2. 2+0.28▼3 · 1-2 strike called ball
    William Contreras vs Robbie Ray
  3. 3-0.23▼4 · 0-2 ball called strike
    Garrett Mitchell vs Bradgley Rodriguez

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

4 pitches went to the robots · 2 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1William Contreras — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2Manny Machado — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3Xander Bogaerts — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  4. 4William Contreras — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 3 of 4 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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