Matt Shaw

The card rack

FlagshipMatt Shaw #HA-44 · 2025 Topps Update Homefield Advantage · 242 recent sales

His flagship is his rookie — one card, one market.

$24.52Raw$51.88PSA 9$138PSA 10$179BGS 10

Live on eBay now · asking, not sold · as of 2026-09-04 · paid links

$20.00Ungraded$24.99Ungraded$25.00Ungraded

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Paid link — as an eBay Partner, FVR earns from qualifying purchases. · Flagship = his most-traded card (the market’s reference); the rookie = the top card of his first card year. As of September 4, 2026 · trend is FVR's own nightly archive · prices via SportsCardsPro · what these terms mean

Scout’s note

Shaw's results are outrunning his contact by more than 97% of the 382 qualified MLB hitters we track — an EV95 of 104.11, below the league median of 105.8, doesn't usually buy what he's produced. The fade board has him at No. 13 of 15, and the luck gap of 0.0528 means the stat line is sitting above the physics. A 24-year-old from Springfield, Massachusetts, taken in the first round of the 2023 draft, Shaw has hit .231 with 17 home runs and 21 steals across 182 career MLB games. His most recent action was a single AAA game. The engine sees a hitter whose outcomes have outpaced his authority, and those gaps tend to close from above. His sprint speed of 29.1 ft/sec buys some margin, but the contact has to rise to meet the line.

Note written Sep 3 · FVR scout (GLM-5.2)

Current signals

The read: Shaw's results are outrunning his contact by more than 97% of the 382 qualified MLB hitters we track — an EV95 of 104.0 (league median 105.7) doesn't usually buy this stat line. Gaps like his tend to close from above; No. 13 of 15 on the fade board.

PAID — his line has outrun his contact. Where he sits in the league →

EV95 (mph)

104.04

Luck gap (park-adj)

0.0514

Overlay score

-0.4613

WAR (season · MLB calc)

0.8

Balls in play

119

Sprint (ft/s)

29.1

Age

24

A market fact, not an engine read: what a club decided about him, on the season before this one. Figures from Cot’s, as of August 29, 2026.

2026 salary

$0.80Mest

Tax hit

$0.80M

Service time

0 yr 162 d

Options left

2 / 3

Regime read from his service time, not from the sheet — it does not project him past this season. Super Two eligibility is the top 22% of a class and can move this line in a way service time alone cannot see.

Cash and the tax hit are two different rulebooks and are never subtracted from one another — see the payroll board for his club, Chicago Cubs.

A second set of books

The same contract, read by MLB Spreadsheets (Ethan Hullihen), as of August 27, 2026. We keep two sources on this because one source cannot check itself.

Tax AAV

$0.80M

Guaranteed

$0.80M

Term

1 yr

His class

Pre-Arb

The tax AAV above is his number under the CBA’s own rulebook, not the average we work out from Cot’s total. On a contract with deferred money the two come apart on purpose — and neither is subtracted from the other.

Collect Matt Shaw

If the signal is right, the cardboard usually finds out later. Current listings:

High-end listings ($75+) →

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Not financial advice. We take positions only after publication — never before. Misses stay on the record.