Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-04-28

CHC @ SD

Home plate: Dan Bellino

A tilt to the evening — the numbers say which way.

A-
Umpire Grade
94.7% accurate
1.0
Run Favor
runs, CHC
4
ABS Overturns
of 6 reviewed

What this shows — how Dan Bellino called the 169 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 160 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Luis Campusano — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Xander Bogaerts — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).2Challenge 3: Xander Bogaerts — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Luis Campusano — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).4Challenge 5: Luis Campusano — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).5Challenge 6: Alex Bregman — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).6
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1-0.394 · 2-2 ball called strike· challenged
    Xander Bogaerts vs Edward Cabrera
  2. 2+0.306 · 3-1 strike called ball· challenged
    Matt Shaw vs David Morgan
  3. 3-0.135 · 1-1 ball called strike
    Fernando Tatis Jr. vs Edward Cabrera

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

6 pitches went to the robots · 4 overturned (ump overruled) · 2 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Luis Campusano — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Xander Bogaerts — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  3. 3Xander Bogaerts — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  4. 4Luis Campusano — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  5. 5Luis Campusano — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  6. 6Alex Bregman — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 4 of 6 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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