Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-03-31

SF @ SD

Home plate: Will Little

The kind of night where the umpire is the least of the story.

A
Umpire Grade
95.1% accurate
0.2
Run Favor
runs, SF
1
ABS Overturns
of 2 reviewed

What this shows — how Will Little called the 162 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 154 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Freddy Fermin — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).1Challenge 2: Xander Bogaerts — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).2
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.233 · 0-2 strike called ball· challenged
    Casey Schmitt vs Germán Márquez
  2. 2-0.212 · 3-0 ball called strike
    Rafael Devers vs Germán Márquez
  3. 3+0.132 · 1-0 strike called ball
    Casey Schmitt vs Germán Márquez

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

2 pitches went to the robots · 1 overturned (ump overruled) · 1 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Freddy Fermin — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  2. 2Xander Bogaerts — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 2 of 2 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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