Fever BaseballFor collectors and stat nerdsFuture Value Radar (FVR) · On the record
Blue Notes · Umpire Grade2026-04-01

COL @ TOR

Home plate: Brian O'Nora

One side pitched to a slightly bigger plate.

B
Umpire Grade
92.8% accurate
1.2
Run Favor
runs, TOR
3
ABS Overturns
of 6 reviewed

What this shows — how Brian O'Nora called the 138 pitches that were taken (no swing), graded against the tracked rulebook strike zone. He got 128 right. Below, only his misses are plotted, alongside every pitch the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike System) reviewed on a challenge.

The zone, as he called it

Challenge 1: Brett Sullivan — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).1Challenge 2: Alejandro Kirk — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled strike (upheld — ump confirmed).2Challenge 3: Brett Sullivan — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled strike (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).3Challenge 4: Ernie Clement — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).4Challenge 5: Jesús Sánchez — the ump called it a strike, the robot ruled ball (OVERTURNED — ump overruled).5Challenge 6: Tyler Heineman — the ump called it a ball, the robot ruled ball (upheld — ump confirmed).6
strike called ballball called strikeABS overturnedABS upheld

The calls that moved the game

  1. 1+0.693 · 3-2 strike called ball
    George Springer vs Kyle Freeland
  2. 2+0.393 · 2-2 strike called ball
    George Springer vs Kyle Freeland
  3. 3-0.191 · 2-0 ball called strike
    George Springer vs Kyle Freeland

Run impact from the count run-value table: a missed strike three is worth far more than one on 3-0.

ABS — the Automated Ball-Strike System

6 pitches went to the robots · 3 overturned (ump overruled) · 3 upheld (ump confirmed). This is the ABS system’s own measurement — Hawk-Eye optical ball-tracking, not our model.

  1. 1Brett Sullivan — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.
  2. 2Alejandro Kirk — ump said strike, robot ruled strike: upheld.
  3. 3Brett Sullivan — ump said ball, robot ruled strike: overturned.
  4. 4Ernie Clement — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  5. 5Jesús Sánchez — ump said strike, robot ruled ball: overturned.
  6. 6Tyler Heineman — ump said ball, robot ruled ball: upheld.

Our tracked-rulebook zone matched the ABS ruling on 5 of 6 — a zone-definition gap (ABS grades a standardized, height-based zone), not our error.

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